Prices tell the truth, but narratives are full of lies.

1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino recently shared a provocative view: insider trading isn't actually that evil. At first glance, it sounds crazy, but his logic is quite interesting—essentially, insider trading is just trading with more accurate information. If insider trading were deregulated, prices would more quickly align with true value, and market transparency would actually improve.

In reality, regulation is applied with two standards. The US SEC enforces insider trading laws very strictly in securities markets, ostensibly to protect retail investors and maintain market trust. But ironically, some politicians' stock market returns are downright outrageous. Nancy Pelosi has earned $130 million from stock investments over her 37-year political career—that number says a lot.

What's more interesting is that the US CFTC's attitude toward commodities and futures markets is completely different. They don't outright ban insider trading; as long as there's no obvious deception or manipulation, trading futures and commodities based on material non-public information is actually legal. This creates a standard regulatory arbitrage space.

Currently, prediction markets are still in their early stages, but it's easy to imagine that in the future, those who want to control market pricing will loudly proclaim the dangers of insider trading. True free markets require more transparency and honest pricing, not a series of regulatory black boxes.