The US December employment data has just been released, and the results are a bit unexpected—not in a positive way.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that 50,000 non-farm jobs were added in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. It sounds okay, but the problem is that this is below economists' expectations. The market generally anticipated an increase of 55,000 jobs, and Bloomberg's more optimistic forecast estimated about 70,000. In November, there was actually an increase of 56,000, so this month’s performance has indeed slowed down.

More notably, the trend of the unemployment rate warrants attention. In November, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, hitting a four-year high. To put it in perspective, it was only 4.4% in September, so this rebound is quite significant. (October data was not released due to the government shutdown.)

From a broader perspective, based on preliminary calculations of wage growth up to December, the US is expected to add approximately 584,000 jobs in 2025, averaging less than 50,000 per month. In comparison, the labor market in 2024 saw an average net increase of about 168,000 jobs per month, indicating a clear slowdown. Meanwhile, in 2023, over 2 million jobs were added throughout the year.

However, there is a detail to watch out for—the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to include final benchmark revisions when releasing the January employment report on February 6. The preliminary revision in September last year revealed that from April 2024 to March 2025, the number of new jobs added each month was nearly 76,000 less than previously reported. So, the final figures might be revised downward, as annual benchmark revisions typically lower earlier estimates.

What impact do these data have on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions? Economists generally expect that if the December unemployment rate remains around 4.5% (currently at 4.4%, already very close), the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the policy meeting on January 27-28. In other words, the slowdown in employment might give the Fed a reason to pause on rate cuts—not an increase, but also not rushing to lower rates.