11.11 Bitcoin Auntie's Evening Strategy
From the 4-hour chart perspective, Bitcoin has experienced a phase correction after rebounding from the lower band to above the midline. Recently, it has repeatedly touched the upper band and then pulled back, with weakening rebound momentum. The market is entering a stage of upper band resistance and weakening consolidation. More importantly, during the entire rebound process, trading volume has not effectively increased, and subsequent upward movements lack substantial capital inflow support. This divergence between volume and price often indicates a risk of false rallies—apparent prosperity but underlying weakness.
Currently, most traders believe that the support level at 104,500 is the "golden entry point" for longs. However, I think it’s not advisable to rush into long positions now. The depth of this pullback may exceed expectations. Instead of betting on support, it’s better to follow the trend and consider short positions in advance.
The resistance level at 107,500 is quite strong, and Bitcoin is unlikely to break through quickly in the short term. If the rebound fails to break this area, it will likely trigger a pullback and shakeout, possibly deeper than expected. Overall, Bitcoin’s short-term trend is weak, and the market may enter a sideways downward cycle. The rebound potential is limited, with clear signs of resistance. I personally recommend mainly short positions tonight.
Personal Suggestions:
Bitcoin: Enter short around 106,000-107,000, with targets at 104,500 and 103,000; if broken downward, target 100,000!
Auntie: Enter short around 3,650, with targets at 3,520 and 3,450; if broken downward, target 3,100!