Recently, the US Non-Farm Payrolls(NFP) data has become the focus of the market. The report released on January 9, 2026, directly triggered turbulence in the crypto market. Let’s look at the numbers first: in December, the US added only 50,000 jobs, far below the market’s original expectation of 600,000 to 700,000. This is not a small gap; it’s a clear signal of economic cooling.

What’s more concerning is that the employment data for the previous two months, October and November(, were also revised downward, indicating that the softness in the US labor market is worse than previously thought. What does this continuous weak data mean for investors?

From an economic perspective, the phrase "bad news may be good news" finds its place at this moment. Weak job growth directly points to a possible scenario: the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in controlling inflation, and may even accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.

Especially at the Fed meeting at the end of January, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to be more likely to hold steady or directly cut rates. This shift in expectation is crucial—it means more "cheap liquidity" will be released into the system. For the crypto market, this is almost always a positive signal.

The reaction in the forex market also reveals clues. The US Dollar Index)DXY( weakened after the non-farm data was released, a typical "dollar weakening" performance. When the dollar loses its appeal, investors’ funds naturally flow into risk assets—digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are the first choices. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets like gold will also be favored.

Speaking of Bitcoin, this timing is particularly interesting. Currently, Bitcoin is very close to the psychological threshold of $100,000. This weak non-farm data might boost bullish confidence. Historically, whenever macroeconomic uncertainty arises, Bitcoin has demonstrated its "digital gold" characteristics, becoming a tool for investors to hedge risks.

How will the shift in liquidity expectations affect the entire crypto ecosystem? First, trading volume may increase, and market participation could rise. Second, the correlation among various risk assets might weaken, giving savvy investors more arbitrage and allocation opportunities. In the short term, this surprising non-farm data could serve as a catalyst for a new upward cycle in the crypto market.

Of course, a single data point cannot determine the whole picture, but this report has indeed changed market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s recent policy. The Fed’s moves directly influence global liquidity, which in turn affects the performance of all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. In other words, this wave might just be the true starting point.