ETH is caught between $700 million in liquidations, with both bulls and bears waiting for these two price levels.

According to the latest news, ETH is currently in a critical liquidation intensity zone. According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $2945, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $705 million; conversely, if it breaks above $3227, the cumulative short liquidation strength will reach $686 million. Currently, ETH is trading around $3089, precisely between these two liquidation points, forming a delicate balance between bulls and bears.

The Practical Meaning of Liquidation Intensity

Distance between current price and liquidation points

Based on the latest data, the position of ETH at $3089.28 relative to the two key liquidation points:

This means bulls need to endure a 4.67% decline to trigger large-scale liquidations, while bears only need a 4.46% increase to face the same risk. The liquidation strengths on both ends are nearly symmetrical, at $705 million and $686 million respectively, indicating a relatively balanced market between longs and shorts.

The Implication Behind Liquidation Strength

Liquidation strength is not an exact count of contracts awaiting liquidation but a measure of the potential liquidity shock when a certain price level is reached. Higher liquidation bars imply that when the price hits that level, forced liquidation of large positions will cause a more intense market reaction. In other words, these two levels are “danger zones” that could trigger chain reactions once touched.

Market Context and Recent Volatility

Price trend observation

According to data, ETH’s recent movement has been relatively mild:

• 1-hour change: 0.16%
• 24-hour change: 0.02%
• 7-day change: 0.68%
• 30-day change: 3.31%

This indicates ETH has experienced some retracement pressure over the past month, but the magnitude remains manageable. The 24-hour trading volume is $894 million, down 52.11% from the previous day, which may reflect market hesitation.

Recent liquidation events

Based on January 8 data, the total liquidation in the past 24 hours was $406 million, with ETH liquidations at $110 million (longs liquidated at $99.87 million, shorts at $10.23 million). This suggests recent market volatility has exerted more pressure on longs, but overall liquidation scale remains relatively controlled.

Historical Comparison of Key Price Levels

According to data recorded on January 9, the variation of liquidation strength at different price levels:

Compared, the long liquidation strength at $2945 (7.05 billion) is lower than at $3000 (9.02 billion), indicating that as the price drops further, liquidation strength may weaken. Similarly, the short liquidation strength at $3227 (6.86 billion) is lower than at $3200 (11.25 billion). This suggests that the market participants’ “danger zones” may not be at the most extreme levels but rather at these intermediate price points.

Risk Assessment and Possible Trends

Risks for Bulls

If the price drops below $2945, the $705 million long liquidation pressure will be triggered. This figure is large enough to cause significant chain reactions in the market. However, historical data shows this liquidation strength is relatively moderate, indicating that while bulls face pressure, they are not necessarily extremely vulnerable.

Bears are also not in an easy position

Conversely, if the price breaks above $3227, the $686 million short liquidation will be forced to close. This is comparable to the pressure on longs, suggesting the market’s hedging between these two directions is relatively balanced.

Personal opinion

From the data perspective, ETH is currently in a relatively stable but sensitive position. The symmetry of bullish and bearish forces means the market is searching for direction, and any clear breakout could trigger liquidity waves. In the short term, the price is more likely to test this range repeatedly rather than break through directly. However, once a clear breakout occurs in either direction, it could lead to a strong acceleration effect.

Summary

ETH’s current price of $3089 is precisely in the gap between two key liquidation points, with bulls facing $705 million in liquidation pressure (a 4.67% decline needed), and bears facing $686 million in liquidation risk (a 4.46% increase needed). This symmetrical distribution of liquidation strength reflects the current market balance between longs and shorts. Recent price movements show ETH is in a mild retracement, with only 0.02% decline in 24 hours, but decreasing trading volume suggests market caution. The key is whether the price can break through either of these critical levels; once broken, it may trigger liquidity shocks in the respective direction. In the short term, investors should closely watch these two levels, as they will determine the next market trend.