I've been in this market for several years and have seen all kinds of people. Some friends make over 20 trades a day, yet their accounts quietly shrink to heartbreaking levels; others are obsessed with getting rich in one shot, only to end up as collateral damage from leverage liquidations; still, some rely on a strange kind of persistence and end up catching significant gains. Thinking carefully, ordinary investors don’t need to tinker on the screen every day to turn things around. The key is whether they can seize those few truly reliable opportunities. Today, I want to discuss a topic—how I understand the logic of "rolling positions."

**Don’t think you’re too smart—first learn to "sit and wait"**

Many losses aren’t because the market doesn’t give opportunities, but because people are "too eager." When the K-line moves, they want to jump in immediately, resulting in small amounts being eaten up by fees, and missing big opportunities because their positions are exhausted early. My approach is quite extreme: most of the time, I either test with very small positions or stay completely out of the market and observe. The moments I go all-in are reserved for that remaining 20%.

Let me give a real example. A few years ago, before a popular sector exploded, I started gradually accumulating related underlying tokens six months in advance. During that period, most funds were staked or waiting, and swing trading was limited to around 5%. When market sentiment completely reversed and sector rotation occurred, my cost basis was ridiculously low, and in the last wave of the market, I gained over 50%. So patience doesn’t mean lying flat and doing nothing; it’s about saving your "bullets" and only firing when you have a real chance to hit the target.

**Why can rolling positions make money? The core isn’t probability but odds**

"Certainty" is the key to this whole strategy. Over the years, I’ve summarized several reliable high-certainty signals:

First, a volume breakout after a deep dip and sideways consolidation. For example, after mainstream coins undergo a correction and enter a low-volume oscillation, a sudden surge with huge volume that stabilizes the previous high is a surprisingly high-probability signal.

Second, major technological upgrades in the broader ecosystem. When a major public chain announces an important upgrade, related ecosystem tokens often present good opportunities in the months prior. By positioning early, you can often catch a nice rally when the upgrade is implemented.

Third, panic selling of leading tokens in new sectors. During major market crashes (like sudden economic data shocks), sector leaders with real applications and consensus are often unfairly sold off, which can be a good entry point.

The commonality among these signals is: they are not based on rumors, stories, or hype, but on genuine market structure and technical reactions. High odds don’t necessarily mean high probability, but once you understand the relationship between odds and probability, you won’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations. An opportunity with a 3:1 odds and a 60% success rate has a positive expected value mathematically and is worth heavy positioning.

**How to judge if a trade is worth going all-in**

It boils down to three dimensions. First is "cost"—how low can you enter? If it’s near the bottom, your margin of error is larger. Second is "time"—how long can this logic last? Short-term explosive opportunities and long-term sector plays require completely different approaches. Third is "position size"—even the best opportunity should match your total capital; don’t risk your entire account on a single trade.

Ultimately, rolling positions isn’t gambling or some mysterious skill. It’s about daring to add when you feel the certainty is high, the odds are good, and the timing is right. When you’re uncertain, discipline yourself to wait. It sounds simple, but few people truly do it—because most of the time, people are either too greedy or too fearful, making it hard to maintain this rational balance.