BTC is trapped between two liquidation lines: breaking above 94483 or dropping below 86663 will trigger a liquidation of $548 million.

According to the latest data, BTC is currently at a delicate juncture: whether breaking above or falling below specific levels will trigger massive liquidations. Data from Coinglass shows that if BTC breaks above $94,483, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $548 million; conversely, if it drops below $86,663, the cumulative long liquidation strength will also be $548 million. Currently, BTC’s price is around $90,455, precisely between these two liquidation lines.

The Market Structure Behind the Liquidation Data

Distance between Price and Liquidation Lines

The current BTC price is about $4,000 above the upper liquidation line ($94,483) and about $3,800 below the lower liquidation line ($86,663). This symmetrical distribution of liquidations reflects a relatively balanced market of longs and shorts, but also indicates a highly sensitive state—any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.

According to recent data, total liquidations across the network in the past hour have reached $35.21 million, with longs liquidated at $22.83 million and shorts at $12.37 million. This ongoing small-scale liquidation is normal market volatility, but once the $548 million liquidation threshold is reached, the scale of liquidations could be dozens of times larger.

Leverage is quietly increasing

Leverage risk in the market is accumulating. Recent analysis shows that open interest in BTC futures and options has risen to nearly 700,000 BTC, a three-week high, increasing by about 75,000 BTC since the beginning of the year. This indicates traders are trading with more leverage.

Perpetual futures funding rates remain around +0.09%, indicating long positions are paying fees to short positions to maintain their exposure. This is a key signal: it shows that some traders are still using leverage to buy the dip, increasing the risk of long liquidations. In other words, if the price breaks downward, these high-leverage longs will be the first to be liquidated.

Contradictory Signals in the Market

Large holders are reducing holdings, but leverage is increasing

An interesting contradiction is that large investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC are reducing their holdings. According to data, these addresses have decreased their holdings by 220,000 BTC year-over-year, the fastest decline since early 2023. Historical data shows similar patterns in 2021-2022, followed by peak prices.

Meanwhile, leverage positions in derivatives markets are growing. This divergence reflects two types of market participants doing opposite things: big holders gradually reducing spot holdings, while traders are increasing leverage in derivatives. This structural divergence itself is a risk signal.

ETF outflows and leverage heating up coexist

Data indicates that the market failed to break through the key level of $95,000, leading to two-way trading. Over the past two trading days, ETF outflows dominated, with BTC experiencing the largest single-day ETF outflow since November ($4.86 million).

This further intensifies market uncertainty: institutional investors (via ETFs) are reducing holdings, while retail traders (via leverage) are increasing positions. When these opposing forces clash, volatility tends to rise, and liquidation risks increase accordingly.

Key Levels and Risk Assessment

From this table, it’s clear that BTC is currently in the “safest” position—both liquidation lines are still some distance away. But this safety is relative.

Upside Breakout Risks

If BTC breaks above $94,483, short holders will face $548 million in liquidation pressure. This could push prices higher, creating a positive feedback loop until liquidations complete. Historically, such breakouts often trigger rapid upward moves.

Downside Breakdown Risks

If BTC falls below $86,663, long holders will face an equivalent scale of liquidation pressure. Considering leverage is increasing and longs are paying funding rates, liquidations in this scenario could be even more intense.

Market Observation and Follow-up Focus

The current market is characterized by price oscillating between the two liquidation lines, with pressure from both sides but no clear breakout direction. This stalemate usually doesn’t last long, as traders continuously adjust positions seeking a direction.

Data shows that key resistance remains near $95,000, with support at around $89,200 (aligned with the 50-day moving average). These levels form a multi-layered price structure with the liquidation data.

Personal opinion: In such a highly sensitive market structure, any breakout in either direction could be accompanied by intense volatility. For traders, risk management is more important than guessing the direction.

Summary

BTC is currently caught between two-way liquidation pressures of $548 million, reflecting a highly tense market. The price around $90,455 is relatively “comfortable,” but this comfort is based on the contradiction of leverage accumulation and large holders reducing holdings. Open interest has hit a three-week high, funding rates remain positive, and ETF outflows continue—these signals all point to a market on the verge of a decision.

It’s crucial to monitor two levels: a breakout above $94,483 will trigger short liquidations, while falling below $86,663 will trigger long liquidations. Whichever side breaks will be a significant market signal. For market participants, understanding where these liquidation lines are is more valuable than guessing the price direction.