#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 What will the Federal Reserve's rate cuts look like in 2026? Let's take a look at the divergent forecasts from major institutions.

Speaking of the Fed's rate cut pace next year, Wall Street is somewhat divided. The mainstream view favors a moderate approach—two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, with rates stabilizing in the 3.00%-3.25% range by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts cuts in March and June, while Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo have similar ideas, just with adjusted timing.

But there are also more aggressive voices. Citibank is more optimistic, forecasting three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, directly lowering rates to 2.75%-3.00%. In contrast, JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank are more conservative, planning only one 25 basis point cut, mainly steady.

Some institutions hold more extreme views—HSBC and Standard Chartered even predict no rate cuts for the entire year, while Macquarie outright calls for rate hikes. The Congressional Budget Office takes a middle ground, expecting rates to be around 3.4% by year-end, with a slight easing.

The real factors influencing the rate cut pace are three variables: when inflation stabilizes and declines, how long the labor market can hold up, and how the new Fed Chair will decide. These uncertainties also directly impact your investment strategy—

A moderate rate cut is most friendly to risk assets, with $BTC, $ETH, and assets like $SOL having greater upside potential; if there are few or no cuts, the US dollar and gold become more stable choices; in the aggressive scenario of three rate cuts, opportunities in crypto and growth stocks emerge (but since there will likely be no cuts in January, the most realistic expectation for 2026 is still two cuts).