#预测市场 After reading the VC summaries for 2025, I fell into deep thought. Stablecoins and prediction markets have become the biggest winners, and the logic behind this is worth pondering— but what’s even more important is to be cautious of the thinking traps we easily fall into.

Honestly, I was also brainwashed by various track narratives back in the day. Public chains, DeFi, GameFi—each claiming to be "the next tenfold opportunity." But what happened? The game of harvesting leek tokens just changed its disguise and continued. Now that prediction markets are booming, projects like Polymarket and Kalshi do have real financial backing, such as intercontinental exchanges investing 2 billion dollars, but this is not a signal to jump in; rather, it’s a warning to be more vigilant.

The more a track is endorsed by big institutions, the easier it is to become a hunting ground for retail investors to be harvested. When traditional financial giants enter the scene, what does it mean? It means they have informational advantages, capital advantages, and technological advantages. The little money we can make, they’ve already eaten through several rounds. The phrase "stablecoins are the 'highest profit per capita' company" sounds good, but who is that "per capita"? It’s definitely not us.

Compared to chasing the hot trends, I now care more about longevity. The case of Do Kwon’s 15-year imprisonment reminds us that there are no flukes on the chain. Instead of fixating on the next ten-thousand-fold opportunity, ask yourself: at what stage is this project’s lifecycle? Is the team behind it driven by real demand or just hype? Can I walk away completely before big institutions pour in?

Prediction markets do meet real demand, but don’t be blinded by the narrative of the "big winners." Remember, only players who survive the bear market are qualified to share a slice of the bull market.