Expectations of Rate Cuts by Major Institutions in 2026

1. Mainstream Camp (Two rate cuts, 50 basis points)
• Goldman Sachs: Double cuts in March and June, ending interest rate of 3.00%-3.25% by year-end; optimistic about economic growth of 2%-2.5%.
• Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Nomura, Barclays: Same target range, with slight timing differences (e.g., Nomura in June and September, Morgan Stanley in January and April (from the perspective of the young master, January is unlikely to cut rates, so Morgan and Citi are not trusted).
2. Aggressive and Conservative Ends
• Citibank (Aggressive): Three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, ending interest rate of 2.75%-3.00% by year-end (January, March, September).
• JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank (Conservative): Only one 25 basis point rate cut, with a more steady pace.
3. Extreme and Official External Perspectives
• HSBC, Standard Chartered: Some forecasts predict no rate cuts for the whole year; Macquarie is more extreme with rate hike expectations.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Slight rate cuts, with year-end interest rate around 3.4%, between mainstream and conservative views.
Core Disagreements and Impact (Young Master’s Commentary)
• Key variables: inflation slowdown slope, labor market resilience, Federal Reserve new chairperson candidate, will determine the pace and frequency of rate cuts.
• Asset impact: Mild double rate cuts (mainstream) favor risk assets; conservative minimal or no rate cuts favor the US dollar and gold; aggressive three rate cuts are more beneficial to cryptocurrencies and growth stocks (no rate cuts in January, so at most two rate cuts in 2026).