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Pentagon Index Issues Warning Again: Probability of "U.S. Attacking Iran by the End of January" Rises to 46%
On January 11, according to Polymarket data, the probability of an attack on Iran by the end of January in the US has risen to 46%, and the probability of an attack on Iran by the end of March has risen to 62%. This morning, news reports indicate that Trump has received a briefing on plans to strike Iran but has not yet made a final decision. The Pentagon Pizza Index also saw a significant increase last night and this morning.