#2026年比特币价格展望 $BTC

**Where is Bitcoin currently stuck?**

Speaking of recent price movements, we need to clarify a few key levels. The bottom support is around 89,500 to 90,000 USD — this area gathers a large number of liquidation orders; breaking below it would be problematic. Further down is 85,400 USD, which is the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands, representing an extreme scenario. Looking upward, resistance levels are more complex: the 91,000 to 92,000 USD range is a concentration of short liquidations, 93,600 USD is the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands, and 95,000 USD is both a psychological integer level and a technical barrier.

Recent institutional movements are quite interesting. Spot ETF net inflows have turned into net outflows; on January 8th and 9th, there was a sudden outflow of 749 million USD. However, MicroStrategy is still increasing their holdings, holding 673,800 BTC with an average cost of about 75,000 USD, and they continued buying in early January.

**What’s the technical situation?**

On the daily chart, RSI is roughly at a neutral 50, and the STOCH indicator is approaching overbought territory. MACD still maintains a bullish alignment, but the trend strength is only moderate. Moving averages are a bit messy; short-term averages are tangled and not very useful for reference, but the mid-term level of 91,500 USD is a dividing line — breaking above or below it means very different things.

In essence, we are currently in a consolidation phase with no clear direction yet. Either break through the 91,500 to 95,000 USD range to confirm a real trend, or continue to trade within the range and fluctuate.

**What about macro and fundamentals?**

The last halving cycle (2024) has passed, but the classic "three years up, one year down" pattern did not repeat. The market structure has changed; after large institutions entered, the volatility logic became more complex. Short-term rallies are mainly driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and liquidity improvements. Conversely, if rate cuts are delayed or inflation suddenly rebounds, prices will face pressure.

Regulatory risks are significant. The EU’s MiCA legislation is considering tightening leverage restrictions, and the US SEC might adjust ETF holding rules — these are potential "black swans." On the supply and demand side, long-term holders are becoming more reluctant to sell, and exchange supply is shrinking. However, on-chain activity is lagging; currently, prices are mainly driven by ETF inflows, with retail participation noticeably declining.

**What to do? Three scenarios**

Optimistic route (1-3 months): Bitcoin stabilizes above 91,500 USD, ETF funds flow back in, opening the possibility to test 95,000 to 100,000 USD. The story of hitting a new all-time high in Q1 would then be on the table.

Moderate route (most likely): Fluctuating within 89,000 to 93,000 USD, waiting for macro data or regulatory news to trigger movement. Low volatility may continue.

Pessimistic route: Falling below 85,000 USD, ETF outflows persist, dropping below 80,000 USD, and the bear market narrative intensifies.

**Risks and suggestions**

At this stage, the strategy should be to hold lightly or just observe. If a breakout above 91,500 USD occurs, consider small long positions, but if it drops below 89,000 USD, reduce your holdings. Setting a stop-loss around 85,000 USD is more prudent.