At the beginning of the year, PEPE led the charge, completely activating the entire animal zoo concept. The long-silent popularity suddenly returned, and the secondary market was hot for over a week before quickly cooling down again. This rhythm of hot and cold reflects the most authentic state of the current market.

Sol and BSC chains are fighting fiercely for traffic. A major exchange launched the first Chinese meme spot trading, coupled with some influencers creating hype. This wave of Chinese MEME truly outperformed other sectors. The competition for traffic isn’t necessarily a bad thing; having hot spots in the market is better than a stagnant pond. It at least gives some players a chance to turn things around and keeps everyone hopeful. The only problem now is how long this liquidity can last. If it can match the rhythm of the secondary market, with prices rising and falling and ultimately forming a positive capital inflow, that would be the ideal scenario. Conversely, if it’s just existing funds fighting internally, it will end up in chaos.

There have actually been quite a few positive news at the start of the year, but the siphoning effect of funds from markets like precious metals and A-shares is too strong. The crypto market has always been troubled by a lack of funds, unable to stir up real waves. With the US dollar assets so weak now, the interest rate cuts and the resulting exchange rate differences actually give me more motivation to short. Instead of chasing high prices and buying coins, I’d rather buy gold, which is more certain. This week, I just casually allocated some core positions in Bitcoin and BNB, just to feel the current market temperature.

My overall trading framework for this year remains the same: when hitting high points, open low-leverage shorts; only participate in small, high-confidence moves. The main strategy is conservative and cautious, keeping enough ammunition. Now I’ll share my personal view on this year’s market.

First, the same as last year: on October 7, Bitcoin surged to 126199, marking the top of this bull run. The current phase is that Wave A has completed its decline, and Wave B is in the rebound stage. The key question now is how high Wave B will rebound—980...