I recently came across an on-chain data analysis report, and some ideas within are worth pondering.

The core logic of the report is simple: the major adjustment has concluded, and the market structure has been thoroughly cleansed. As long as Bitcoin can稳稳站上10万美元 this threshold, 2026 can enter a true bull market.

**Why say the adjustment has ended?**

The most straightforward indicator is the disappearance of selling pressure. The correction at the end of last year pushed out all those looking to lock in profits. Looking at the daily realized profit data makes this clear—dropping from a previous average of $1 billion per day to $180 million. What does this indicate? No one is in a rush to sell anymore. Large long-term holders, who previously held back on their Bitcoin reductions, have mostly finished releasing their positions. Once the selling pressure in the market dissipates, price rallies become much easier.

**Why is the $91,000 position so critical?**

According to data analysis, this price level roughly represents the current short-term average entry cost for investors. It may seem insignificant, but it’s actually quite interesting. If Bitcoin can hold steady at this level, what does that mean? The new entrants are all starting to profit. Once this group’s confidence is ignited, the market will enter a "crazy demand-driven" phase, targeting $150,000. Conversely, if resistance is encountered here, the market may continue to fluctuate for a while.

**A more interesting observation: the cycle law may have changed**

The old story was like this—post-halving, a year of explosive growth was inevitable, with a four-year complete cycle, and the market fluctuated wildly like riding an elevator. But now, it seems different. Large institutions like BlackRock are continuously accumulating, supporting the market with stable capital flows. As a result, the trend is no longer characterized by rapid surges and crashes but by a "stair-step" ascent driven by institutional funds—slow but steady, step by step upward.

**How should ordinary investors follow along?**

First, the $99,000 to $100,000 range is the "bottom line" of this cycle. As long as the weekly chart remains firmly above this, there’s no need to be overly fearful—this signals a genuine big trend.

Second, closely monitor on-chain data regarding "long-term holders." This group has now stopped large-scale dumping. If one day the on-chain data shows they start re-accumulating, that’s a very strong buy signal—institutions are acting, and retail investors should follow suit.

Finally, staggered entry is more rational. According to analysis, the target price range for 2026 is $112,000 to $150,000. The current price above $90,000, from an institutional perspective, is actually a reasonable starting point after clearing out accumulated supply. There’s no need to dump everything at once; gradually building positions is more prudent.

In summary, the logic of this cycle is: profit-taking has been cleared out, and new incremental funds (especially institutions) are taking over. The technicals give clear support levels, and there’s no need to be overly anxious psychologically. As long as we wait for a breakout of this psychological threshold, the story will unfold from there.