Japan is about to launch an ambitious deep-sea resource program. According to the latest news, the island nation will conduct its first experimental rare earth extraction in the deep-sea area 5,500 to 6,000 meters south of Minamitorishima Island between January and February 2026. This is not only a resource exploration but also a contest of technology and costs.

For this trial extraction, Japan has deployed specialized "Chikyū" drilling ships and other core equipment, with the mud-raising pipe alone costing 12 billion yen. The original plan was delayed by a full year due to delivery delays from a UK supplier.

Why is Japan so persistent? The waters around Minamitorishima Island are believed to contain an estimated 16 million tons of rare earth reserves, ranking third in the world. Heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and gadolinium are key materials for new energy vehicles and nuclear reactors. This is the real reason behind Japan’s risk-taking.

However, reality is much more complex than imagination. Japan has only conducted technical validation in waters at 2,500 meters depth before, and at 5,500 meters, water pressure reaches up to 550 atmospheres—any equipment defect could be crushed directly. Although the trial plan appears detailed, it is actually a small-scale test: over three weeks, only about 35 tons of mud are expected to be collected. At a refining rate of 2 kilograms of rare earths per ton, the final product would be around 70 kilograms. This output even cannot meet Japan’s daily rare earth consumption.

Official statements and actual plans show significant discrepancies. The media claims "commercialization in one year," but Japan’s marine development strategy clearly states that commercial use will only be realized after 2028. 2027 is just the start of a thousand-ton demonstration extraction phase, far from direct commercialization.

Cost is another major challenge. The equipment investment for this trial amounts to approximately $83 million, and the transportation and refining costs for scaled-up extraction could double or triple that—ultimately, the cost may be five times higher than land-based rare earth mining in China. Deep-sea mud contains over 90% water content, and dehydration alone accounts for 60% of the total energy consumption. Coupled with nuclear waste treatment for thorium elements, traditional refining processes consume 17 times more energy than China’s mainstream technologies.

Natural factors also pose threats. The waters around Minamitorishima Island are environmentally complex, located along the high typhoon season path in summer and autumn, with waves reaching several meters as a common phenomenon. This not only threatens extraction efficiency but also endangers the safety of drilling ships.

International opposition is also rising. 37 countries have jointly opposed deep-sea mining, citing environmental concerns—mining could stir sediment plumes and threaten fragile deep-sea ecosystems. Large financial institutions like Credit Suisse have explicitly stated that they will not provide financing support without comprehensive environmental impact assessments.

Even if Japan successfully extracts raw rare earth minerals, the subsequent refining stage remains a bottleneck. 92% of global rare earth refining capacity is controlled by China, with a highly mature industry chain from mining to high-end processing. Japan lacks this industrial accumulation and technological foundation, making it difficult to catch up in the short term.

Japan has also explored alternative solutions. The "urban mine" project recycles waste electronic products, recovering only 300 tons of rare earths annually; research into new rare earth-free materials is ongoing, but most are still in laboratories and far from industrialization.

This trial extraction is essentially a technological validation and strategic exploration for Japan. Relying on it as a breakthrough to break free from rare earth dependence is undoubtedly overly optimistic. From technological breakthroughs to actual commercial extraction, Japan still has a long road of more than ten years ahead, not to mention shaking up the global rare earth market landscape.