$776 million Big Test: ONDO Unlock Wave Approaching, Can RWA Leader Hold Steady?

ONDO will face a major token unlock in one week (January 18th): approximately 1.939 billion ONDO tokens are about to be released, valued at $776 million based on the current price. This number is equivalent to about 130% of the current circulating supply, making it the first heavyweight unlock event in the crypto market in 2026. Interestingly, ONDO’s recent business activities have been accelerating—in the perspective of RWA (Real World Asset) sector leadership, this unlock is both a risk and an opportunity.

How big is the unlock?

According to the latest data, the scale of this unlock is indeed significant:

To view it differently: this is roughly releasing the currently circulating ONDO tokens again plus a bit more. From a liquidity perspective, this is a considerable pressure.

What has the market been digesting lately?

A detail worth noting: ONDO’s price trend has not been ideal recently—down 7.16% over the past 7 days and down 16.45% over the past 30 days. However, during the same period, ONDO’s business has been expanding rapidly:

Business progress accelerating

• TVL (Total Value Locked) has approached $2 billion, hitting a record high
• Over 200 tokenized stocks and ETFs launched on Ethereum and BNB Chain
• Upcoming launch of tokenized US stocks and ETFs on Solana
• A summit in New York on February 3rd, with major Wall Street players like BlackRock, State Street, and others confirmed to participate

Fundamentals improving

What does this indicate? As a leader in the RWA (Real World Asset) sector, ONDO is evolving from a niche crypto product into an entry point for traditional finance. Last year, it processed over $6.3 billion in trading volume, and successfully navigated regulatory investigations by the US SEC, obtaining compliance licenses.

What does this mean? Institutional capital is recognizing this sector. Large-scale unlocks are often associated with early investors or team releases, which could instead signal a transition from early-stage funding to commercialization.

What impact might the unlock have?

From a market perspective, several points need to be observed:

Short-term liquidity pressure

Releasing 1.9 billion tokens into the market could, if sold en masse, exert downward pressure on the price. But the key questions are: who are these tokens from, and what are their intentions? If they come from institutional investors or long-term holders, they might choose to release gradually or lock their tokens. If early investors are eager to cash out, the pressure could be greater.

Market absorption capacity

ONDO’s average daily trading volume is about $30 million. At this rate, fully digesting 1.9 billion tokens would take quite some time. However, this also means that if there is enough buy-side support—such as institutional interest in the RWA sector—the market can complete the unlock at relatively stable prices.

Timing considerations

The unlock coincides with the peak hype in the RWA sector. This may not be a coincidence—project teams might be waiting for the sector to heat up before releasing liquidity, and the market may have more buyers willing to participate.

How to view this unlock?

From my perspective, this is not simply a negative event. The key points are:

1. Fundamental support: ONDO’s business is genuinely growing, not just on paper. With nearly $2 billion TVL and over 200 tokenized stocks and ETFs launched, these are tangible products.

2. Sector momentum: RWA has shifted from a niche concept to a focus of Wall Street attention. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others are actively involved in tokenized assets, providing strong market demand context for ONDO.

3. Timing of the unlock: Choosing to unlock during a period of high sector interest and rapid business development shows confidence from the project team in market absorption capacity.

4. Risks: Short-term price volatility is inevitable, but if ONDO continues to push forward with product development and partnerships post-unlock, the long-term outlook remains intact.

Summary

This $776 million unlock for ONDO is better viewed not as a crisis but as a milestone indicating that the RWA sector has entered a new stage of development. The market’s focus should be on whether ONDO can sustain growth after the unlock, rather than just price declines. The February summit in New York and new product launches on Solana will be key tests of market confidence. Short-term fluctuations are unavoidable, but for investors confident in the long-term prospects of RWA, this unlock could serve as an opportunity to observe and participate.