Ethereum social media sentiment remains sluggish: a period of silence before history repeats?

Ethereum social media sentiment is experiencing a new wave of downturn. According to the latest analysis by Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan, ETH’s current sentiment level on social media is similar to the phase before the significant price surge in 2025. That rally ultimately pushed Ethereum back to its all-time high in 2021. This comparison raises an interesting question: Is the subdued sentiment hinting at the next rebound?

Current Market Situation of Ethereum

Ethereum is currently priced at $3,092, but recent performance has been less than optimistic. As of this week, ETH has declined 1.76% over the past 7 days and 4.84% over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the 24-hour trading volume stands at $665 million, a sharp drop of 61.01% from the previous day, reflecting a significant decrease in market participation.

From a market cap perspective, ETH remains the second-largest asset in the crypto market, with a market cap of $37.32 billion, accounting for 12.06% of the total market. However, the sharp decline in trading volume indicates that, despite its large market cap, market activity is waning.

Historical Signals from Social Media Sentiment

According to relevant data, the overall market sentiment indicator has reached a historic low. Early 2025 data shows that the 90-day activity of retail holders dropped to a low of 12.3%, and the Fear & Greed Index has been below 20 for several consecutive weeks, levels comparable to the market bottom in March 2020.

Santiment’s analysis points out that, just before the 2025 price surge, Ethereum’s social media sentiment was also subdued. The rebound following that low ultimately pushed ETH back to its all-time high in 2021. This creates an interesting analogy: the current low sentiment closely resembles past bottom signals.

Market Psychology Behind the Downturn

Why does the market rebound from a state of pessimism? This involves several key psychological factors:

Fear and Opportunity Transition

When social media is filled with pessimism, it often indicates that market participants have fully expressed their fear. According to relevant data, the current market is in a state of “sellers unable to sell, buyers waiting on the sidelines,” which is a hallmark of extreme sentiment. Historical experience shows that such periods are often when long-term capital quietly accumulates.

On-Chain Activity Divergence

Although retail investor sentiment is low, large transaction activity is increasing. Data from Santiment shows that whale transactions for several assets have recently surged, indicating that institutions and big players are quietly positioning themselves. This divergence often signals an upcoming market shift.

Volume and Price Dynamics

Currently, ETH’s trading volume has dropped significantly, but the price has not continued to decline, suggesting that the market has found support. Price stability amid low volume often indicates a buildup phase.

Future Possibilities

Based on Santiment’s historical comparison analysis, Ethereum may currently be in a stage similar to the one before the 2025 rebound. If this analogy holds, then a shift in social media sentiment could serve as a leading indicator of a rebound. However, it is important to note that this inference relies on the repeatability of market psychological cycles, and the timing and magnitude of the actual rebound remain uncertain.

Key points to watch include: when social media sentiment shows a clear turnaround, whether large on-chain transactions continue to increase, and if trading volume begins to expand. The combined movement of these indicators will determine the credibility of a potential rebound.

Summary

The subdued social media sentiment around Ethereum is not necessarily bad news; it may be a normal phase within the market psychology cycle. According to Santiment, the current sentiment level is similar to the stage before the significant rally in 2025, which ultimately drove ETH’s price higher. This suggests that low sentiment often precedes a rebound.

However, historical comparisons are only references, not predictions. A genuine rebound requires a confluence of fundamentals, on-chain data, and market psychology. Currently, the most important signals to monitor are the turning points in social media sentiment and the continued movement of institutional funds. The shift in these signals will more clearly reveal Ethereum’s next move.