Recently, this wave of market movement is standing at a critical crossroads. The market has shifted from the疯狂去杠杆 at the end of last year to selectively taking on risks earlier this year, and this transition is actually very significant. The pressure to take profits is easing, but the problem is—prices have rebounded into the dense cost area of recent large buyers, roughly between $92,100 and $117,400, forming a clear overhead supply pressure.

From a technical perspective, the average cost for short-term holders is around $99,100. Holding this level firmly is crucial—it’s a key point both psychologically and technically. If the market can hold steady here, confidence will significantly improve. Moreover, the options market signals are quite interesting—market makers have shifted their strategies in the $95,000 to $104,000 range, turning to short gamma positioning. Simply put, if prices rise within this range, market makers need to buy spot to hedge risks, which could actually further strengthen upward momentum.

On the macro level, policy and environmental factors are indeed favorable. The US policy direction for 2025 clearly leans toward supporting the crypto industry, clearing many obstacles for institutional funds. The bipartisan Market Structure Act is expected to pass in 2026, which will make regulation more transparent and friendly. But risks must also be guarded against—the US midterm elections in November 2026 are a variable. Polls show the Democrats may have the advantage, and if they control Congress, the current pro-crypto policy stance might need to be adjusted. This policy uncertainty will cause short-term market turbulence, but in the long run, the institutionalization trend of the crypto market is already very clear.