Seeing the recent actions of a top trader, I can't help but want to analyze it with everyone. This trading expert used 40x leverage to short nearly 50 BTC, with an average entry price around 92,000 USD. Currently, the account shows a floating loss of $6,500. At first glance, it looks like a loss, but don't rush to conclusions. Let's review his performance: 152 trades with only 4 losses, and a total profit of over $290,000 — such a record is rare in the trading circle.

I've been in this space for several years, and this time I want to combine on-chain data and the latest news to outline the market's upcoming logic.

**What does on-chain data say?**

This large-scale short operation was indeed monitored, but more interesting are other signals. Recently, the frequency of large on-chain Bitcoin transfers has increased, but interestingly, exchange inflows haven't surged accordingly. This usually indicates that big players are adjusting their positions or quietly building positions, rather than rushing to dump.

Looking at the funding rate of perpetual contracts, it is currently at a relatively neutral level. This suggests the market isn't dominated by extreme bearish sentiment — if it were truly panicking, the funding rate would have skyrocketed by now. The floating loss of that trader likely results from the price not dropping as he expected, but instead stabilizing at some level. This actually reflects the market's resilience.

**What about the news side?**

Because of his strong track record and large follower base, this trader's moves tend to attract attention. But that’s a double-edged sword — if the price continues upward, his floating loss could turn into real losses, possibly forcing a liquidation. Once stop-loss orders are triggered, it could actually push buying back up, creating an interesting reverse effect.

After scanning the latest news, there’s no substantial bearish catalyst today. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s tone remains relatively stable, with no sudden hawkish signals. So, this short position seems more like a test trade by a skilled trader rather than an indication that the overall market trend is reversing.

**My judgment: Short-term consolidation with a bias to the upside, not recommended to follow and short**

The reasons are clear: on-chain data shows the positions are relatively healthy, with no signs of large-scale panic selling; meanwhile, this trader’s floating loss actually demonstrates the market’s resilience. I expect BTC to consolidate between 90,000 and 95,000 USD, then seek an upward breakout.

Why am I so confident? I shared last month that on-chain data indicated large holders were quietly accumulating. This current consolidation is essentially building strength. Before last year’s rally, I warned in advance to reduce positions, and looking back, that judgment was accurate. My analysis always follows this logic: first check the data, then consider the news, and finally give the most probable direction.

**Final advice: Don’t be led by the actions of a single big player**

Market movements are the result of all participants working together; even the best trader is just one piece on the chessboard. My current strategy is: hold your spot positions firmly, avoid unnecessary leverage, and wait until the trend is clearer before considering adding leverage. History repeatedly proves that those who can hold on are the ultimate winners.