Interesting things just happened.

Someone was looking at the monthly Bollinger Bands and noticed that Bitcoin's price was forming a series of consecutive bearish divergences at the upper band, and now it has returned near the midline. The logic is straightforward—continue to explore the bottom, and entering a deep bear market is highly probable. The entire analysis sounds flawless.

But then someone else presented an entirely opposite view. This person pointed out: you initially assumed that the cycle was about to end, constrained by the traditional 4-year cycle theory, and completely failed to see the true business cycle.

He pulled out historical data to prove his point: whenever this indicator first tests the important midline, Bitcoin tends to hit new all-time highs afterward. He also added a very insightful note—divergence phenomena are everywhere in trading, followed by sharp pullbacks forming higher lows (like this 80k retracement), then continuing to rise strongly. There are so many examples you can't count them.

The same indicator can tell two completely opposite stories.

Think about why this happens. The fundamental reason is actually very simple: everyone already has a path in mind, and then they look for reasons that support that path. This is a common mental trap. You look at data with a preset mindset, and naturally, you find angles that support it.

Of course, we cannot deny that 2026 will indeed bring many challenges and uncertainties. The good news is that once this year truly passes, we will have a brand new data sample. This will be very important for improving trend analysis methods and refining trading systems.