#以太坊大户持仓变化 ZEC rebound after breakout: bottom or trap?

Recently, looking at ZEC's 1-hour K-line chart, there are indeed some clues. From 360.70 straight up to 417.99, it directly broke through the upper band(416.79) of the Bollinger Bands, then pulled back to around 415—what does this rhythm indicate?

**Technical Analysis**

Price surges and pulls back usually suggest two possibilities: one is a top and retreat, the other is a test of the chips' depth by the main force. From the moving average configuration, the latter is more likely. EMA(7) is at 405.87, MA(7) is at 404.14, and the support band formed by these two lines is quite solid. More importantly, EMA(30) has already crossed above MA(30), indicating a clear medium-term bullish alignment.

On the MACD side, both lines are above the zero axis. Although the green momentum bars have shrunk a bit, DIF and DEA show no death cross signals. This is normal consolidation during an uptrend, not a dangerous reversal signal.

**On-Chain Data Insights**

The most interesting is the on-chain activity. Recently, large transfers of ZEC have increased in frequency, but inflows to exchanges are decreasing—what does this mean? Chips are moving from retail investors to big players. The number of active on-chain addresses in the privacy coin sector has also quietly risen. As a veteran project in this track, ZEC is gaining renewed attention.

**Macro and Ecosystem Aspects**

The expectation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in early 2026 is heating up. In such an environment, highly volatile assets tend to attract more attention. This is no small matter for privacy coins. Plus, ZEC's ZSA(Zcash Shielded Assets) upgrade is about to enter the testnet phase. If this materializes, the ecosystem's imagination space will be quite different.

**Future Trend Outlook**

The current pullback is likely a routine correction after a breakout. As long as the price holds above the 405-408 range(the area where EMA7 and MA7 intersect), there is a high probability of continuing to push towards 430-450.

If it falls below 400, caution is needed for possible trap setups. But even in that case, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the narratives of privacy, technological upgrades, and macro favorable factors are still intact, and the trend will not reverse.

**Practical Trading Tips**

Aggressive traders can start accumulating longs around 408 in batches, with a stop-loss set at 398. For more conservative traders, wait until the price breaks through 420 with increased volume before following the trend. $ZEC