#密码资产动态追踪 ZEC this wave of market movement, the pullback after breakout is worth pondering

Recently, ZEC’s performance on the 1-hour chart has indeed been noteworthy. As a trader who has been active in the crypto space for many years, I pay attention not only to the candlesticks themselves but also more importantly to the flow of funds behind them and market sentiment.

**Technical Analysis**

The price surged from over 360 to 418, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band (416.79) in one go, then pulled back to around 415. This kind of rapid breakout followed by volume contraction and retest is usually not a top signal; instead, it looks like the market makers are testing market depth and accumulating positions.

In the short-term moving averages, EMA(7) is stuck at 405.87, and MA(7) is at 404.14, forming a solid support level. More importantly, EMA(30) has already crossed above MA(30), indicating a bullish medium to short-term alignment. The MACD lines are oscillating above the zero line, with the green energy histogram contracting but DIF and DEA not yet showing a death cross. This is a normal correction during an uptrend, no need to panic.

**On-Chain Data Speaks**

Recently, large transfers of ZEC have increased significantly, but exchange inflows are decreasing. What does this mean? It indicates that chips are shifting from retail investors to big players. This is a positive signal.

The number of active on-chain addresses in the privacy coin sector has been quietly rising, and as a leading player in this field, ZEC’s capital attention is returning.

**Fundamental Catalysts**

The Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts around early 2026 is heating up, and the overall market risk appetite is starting to favor high-volatility assets. The privacy coin sector may see a structural rally.

The ZEC community is pushing forward with the ZSA (Zcash Shielded Assets) upgrade plan, which is about to enter the testnet. If it goes live, the entire ecosystem could experience explosive growth.

**My Perspective**

This pullback is a typical healthy correction after a breakout. As long as the price holds above 405 to 408 (the overlapping zone of EMA7 and MA7), there’s a high probability of a rally towards 430 to 450.

If it suddenly drops below 400, caution is needed as it might be a trap. But from a medium to long-term perspective, the trend remains upward—the narrative of privacy coins remains intact, technological upgrades are progressing, and macro factors support this. All three logical pillars are still in place.

**Practical Trading Tips**

Aggressive traders can start scaling into long positions around 408, with a stop-loss at 398, aiming for a target of 430.

More conservative traders can wait for a volume breakout above 420 before entering, following the trend for more stability.

Trading ultimately is about playing probabilities, not gambling. Currently, the odds for ZEC favor the bulls. Keep a close eye on market movements, speak with data and logic—that’s the key to long-term survival. $ZEC