Someone asked Teacher Da Sima why he despises those who always earn as KOLs?

Essentially, Teacher Ma looks down on those with high win rates.

Why?

It's simple: a high win rate is an illusion.

You see a turkey, fed every day by someone.

For the turkey, the past 1000 days of statistics show that humans are friendly, and the feeding success rate is 100%.

The turkey feels secure in life, even mocking wild birds in the forest that go hungry now and then.

Until the day before Thanksgiving, that hand no longer holds feed but a knife.

This is the turkey illusion mentioned by Taleb in his book.

Before the black swan arrives, we are all that slaughtered turkey.

More precisely, people with high risk-reward ratios don't look down on high win rates; they look down on those who equate high win rates with high returns.

Because they know, no matter how high the win rate, if you end up losing money in the end, it’s all meaningless. Everyone is an adventurer picking up coins in front of a steamroller.

Even if you win 99 times, the money earned from those 99 wins isn't enough to cover the last loss.

Win rate is like a drug; risk-reward ratio is like bitter medicine.

In this market, there are only two types of people: those who want to make money and those who want to prove they are right. High win rate people often belong to the latter.

To maintain a high win rate, traders often refuse to cut losses when they should.

Because once they cut losses, it becomes a failure, and the win rate drops.

So they choose to hold on, hoping for a price rebound to break even and exit. In the eyes of high risk-reward ratio traders, this behavior is simply naive and childish.

To maintain that beautiful win rate, they treat their losing trades like caring for a baby, while early discarding their profitable trades like trash. This is actually catering to human weakness.

Ultimately leading to account destruction. And high risk-reward ratios basically overcome the human weakness of not wanting to admit mistakes; they are accustomed to stop-loss and correction.

Ending with minimal cost, with the greatest possibility to re-enter. In their view, those pursuing high win rates are still slaves controlled by their ego, who will eventually lose all their previous gains by stubbornly holding on through a big loss.

Traders with high risk-reward ratios do the opposite of fragile—they are anti-fragile. Their low win rate is because they are constantly trial and error, using small losses to seek that unknown black swan.

The reason for looking down on others stems from a sense of superiority in survival philosophy.

High risk-reward ratio traders believe they have grasped the truth of survival: cutting losses early and letting profits run, while thinking high win rate traders are just playing with fire foolishly.

They have seen many experts with 90% win rates disappear during extreme market conditions.

Therefore, this contempt is essentially a divine foresight of impending doom.

The market oscillates 70% of the time, with only 30% trending clearly.

To catch the big trend, i.e., a high risk-reward strategy, you must constantly trial and error during the oscillation period and accept stop-losses.

This makes it difficult for win rate to exceed 50%. Without tools or special techniques, so-called high win rate is either wishful thinking or storytelling.

Because to catch a doubling opportunity, enduring five failed breakouts is normal.

High risk-reward traders despise high win rates not out of arrogance.

They believe tolerating low win rates is a higher-level professional quality. Those who can endure five consecutive losses without losing their composure and still dare to re-enter with heavy positions are the true strong.

And those pursuing high win rates are seen as delicate flowers who can't endure hardship or setbacks. This contempt reflects not that risk-reward ratio is more noble than win rate, but that high risk-reward ratio is more against human nature.

This disdain says: I have already overcome the childish desire to always win, becoming a cold-blooded killer who only cares about making money and not face.

But the truth is, there are indeed gods in the market with high win rates and high risk-reward ratios, as well as quant giants who rely on high win rates and strict drawdown control.

As ordinary traders, voluntarily giving up the pursuit of win rate and choosing to embrace risk-reward ratio is a way of survival.

This is just one of the paths to Rome; although it is a broad avenue, it is certainly not the only one.

#bnb #btc