Market sentiment is bottoming out but not overly optimistic; swing trading in 2026 is the key.

According to the latest news, Matrixport pointed out when analyzing this year’s market start that market sentiment is gradually warming up, and its self-developed Greed and Fear Index has shown clearer signs of bottoming out. Such signals have historically appeared near Bitcoin’s cyclical bottom, indicating that the market may enter an upward correction phase. However, it is worth noting that this does not mean prices will quickly return to all-time highs, and investors need to stay sober-minded.

Technical Signals of Sentiment Shift

According to relevant information, BTC’s current price is $92,039.22, up 1.50% in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.84 trillion. From recent trends, although it has decreased by 0.54% over 7 days, the 30-day increase is 1.89%, indicating relatively solid support at the bottom.

Matrixport’s Greed and Fear Index moving average shows signs of bottoming out, which is an important sentiment indicator. Based on historical patterns, such signals often appear near Bitcoin’s cyclical bottom, implying that extremely pessimistic market sentiment has largely been released. Against this backdrop, the risk of continued decline has eased, and the market is more inclined to enter an upward correction.

Why say “but don’t be overly optimistic”

However, Matrixport also emphasizes that sentiment stabilization does not mean prices will quickly return to all-time highs. According to the latest analysis on January 9, the market currently faces structural challenges:

• Lack of new capital inflows, with weak realized market value inflow
• Limited participation of new investors, with unimpressive growth data
• Large, seasoned holders continue to reduce holdings in a controlled manner
• The market is forming a long-term oscillating top pattern, rather than capitulation-style selling

These factors indicate that although downside risks are limited within a controllable range, upward momentum is also significantly constrained.

The Need for Strategy Shift

Looking back to late October last year, Matrixport had warned of a higher likelihood of a larger correction. Entering 2026, this judgment remains valid. The institution pointed out that a unilateral long strategy environment may still not be optimal.

This means investors need to adjust their approach:

• Abandon the mindset of solely going long
• Shift toward more tactical swing trading
• Maintain discipline and look for opportunities amid volatility
• Whether to flexibly grasp swing trades may become the key to widening profit margins

In simple terms, the market in 2026 requires “swing trading experts” rather than “bullish longs.”

Summary

The bottoming of market sentiment is a positive signal, indicating that extreme pessimism is a thing of the past and downside risks are now within controllable limits. But this does not mean a bull market has arrived; rather, it marks a more complex stage. The current lack of new capital and limited investor participation suggest that this will be a process of oscillation and correction rather than rapid upward movement. For investors, the key is to recognize that the market has shifted from a single-direction trend to a swing trading environment, and adjusting strategies while remaining flexible is essential to profit in this environment.