Ethereum is Approaching a Critical Point—Could It Surpass Bitcoin Before the End of the Year?

Current Technical Landscape of ETH

Ethereum continues to show bullish divergence on the on-balance volume (OBV), a strong indication of ongoing accumulation behind the scenes. While the price is currently hovering around $3.16K with a +1.83% increase in the past 24 hours, the MACD histogram clearly shows a reduction in selling pressure—a positive signal that goes deeper than simple price action.

The most important detail: the Ichimoku Cloud is beginning to flatten and thin, a technical setup that historically precedes strong directional expansion. This is not just noise—it’s a structural pause before the next move.

Support and Consolidation Foundations

On the weekly structure, ETH has formed an ascending triangle pattern, supported by multiple higher lows. The 50-day moving average is acting near $3,300, serving as a strong immediate resistance, while the 200-day average at $2,600 forms solid support from longer timeframes.

The compressed volatility currently indicates accumulated energy waiting for release. A breakdown in either direction will be crucial for Ethereum’s next major narrative until the end of the year.

The ETH/BTC Pair and Rotation Dynamics

While Bitcoin is trading at $92.09K (+1.41% in 24h), the ETH/BTC pair is approaching its own inflection zone. Its movement is impossible to follow in isolation, as Bitcoin’s price action directly impacts broader market sentiment.

If ETH/BTC breaks out above nearby resistance, it will suggest a capital rotation from the largest cryptocurrency into major altcoins. This scenario could pave the way for stronger outperformance of Ethereum against Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

The Bullish Scenario: How to Reach $3,500?

A confirmed daily close above the $3,300–$3,350 resistance zone, combined with increasing volume, will confirm a true breakout from the consolidation phase. Under these conditions, momentum indicators are expected to expand, targeting $3,450–$3,500 as the next logical liquidity target before year-end.

Key conditions for this scenario:

• ETH/BTC continues to break above nearby resistance, confirming the rotation narrative
• Bitcoin remains strong above $43,000 without aggressive selling pressure
• New inflows into ETH-related derivatives show directional positioning rather than simple hedging strategies

If all these align, Ethereum could exit range-bound trading and enter short-term trend mode, increasing chances of temporary outperformance.

The Bearish Case: When Momentum Fails

Failing to reach the $3,350 resistance—especially if followed by long upper wicks or declining volume—is a clear sign of continued sell pressure. In this scenario, Ethereum may pull back toward the $3,100–$3,050 support level, reinforcing a broader trading range rather than triggering true directional movement.

Downside catalysts to watch:

• ETH/BTC fails to breakout, and Bitcoin remains the primary capital sink in the market
• Bitcoin gets rejected at $44,000, shifting risk sentiment across the ecosystem
• Spot volume declines, indicating a lack of buyer confidence

In this scenario, ETH may remain in consolidation until year-end, offering limited directional opportunities while traders await clearer macro triggers.

The Deeper Target: The Road to $4,100

If the breakout is sustainable and all bullish criteria are met, the next major resistance level reaches the $3,600–$3,800 zone. The beyond-that target of $4,100 would represent the completion of a larger upside cycle, though it will be more achievable if the broad market sentiment remains supportive.

Downside risk is more severe: losing the $2,600 support could trigger a pullback to the $2,300–$2,400 level, opening a larger consolidation or correction phase.

The Bottom Line

Ethereum is at a critical decision point, and the next few weeks will be decisive for its direction until the end of the year. The combination of bullish technicals (OBV divergence, thinning Ichimoku Cloud, ascending triangle pattern) competes against near-term resistance levels and the overall uncertainty of Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Traders should monitor the $3,300 breakout as a key confirmation point, while the $2,600 support remains critical and must not be broken. The outcome will be informative not only for ETH but for broader altcoin dynamics in the upcoming quarters.