Is Bitcoin conquering 100K the maximum? Standard Chartered has lowered its expectations

In 2024, Standard Chartered once painted a bright future—Bitcoin aiming to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. But like a sci-fi movie remade into a family drama, this giant bank has just decided to “reset” its ambitions. The new target? Humble: $100,000. In other words, the forecast has been cut in half.

Capital flows from crypto giants have already started “vanishing”

Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $92.16K—an amount that might disappoint investors who once hoped for a “rollercoaster” rally. The exuberant rally from previous months has lost momentum, replaced by a gradual silence in the market.

Geoffrey Kendrick, a Standard Chartered analyst, points out the main issue: the corporate crypto “lock-in”—large funds like MicroStrategy, influential names in the Bitcoin world—have stopped “accumulating” Bitcoin as before. Instead of continuously adding to their treasuries, they are now in a waiting mode.

The responsibility of keeping the market hot falls on Bitcoin ETFs. But surprisingly, this “financial warrior” is also falling behind. Compared to Q4 2024—when ETF purchases plus corporate treasuries reached 450,000 BTC per quarter—the current figure is only 50,000 BTC. That’s a catastrophic decline.

Fed and signals from Washington

The slowdown of large capital flows is not accidental. The Federal Reserve is becoming the main player deciding the “risk appetite” of investors. The Fed’s interest rate moves directly influence the attractiveness of “risk-on” assets like Bitcoin.

However, there’s an interesting scenario: if the Fed cuts rates by 0.25 percentage points and Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair—as recent rumors suggest—this could trigger a new wave of “money printing.” That would create an ideal environment for hard assets like Bitcoin, safe havens when currencies become more lenient.

Halving is no longer a decisive factor

Geoffrey Kendrick dismisses the old argument: the halving event is no longer the main “trigger” for Bitcoin’s price. The seasonal crypto market cycle once trusted now seems to be over.

Crypto winter is not just a thing of the past—it’s a “very small threat.” Current market predictions only see a 6% chance of a real crypto “hibernation” at the start of 2026. This indicates the community is expecting a more stable market, rather than extreme volatility.

Bitcoin is waiting for a signal from the Fed

Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s price remains confined just below $100,000, awaiting a decision from the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Any move by the central bank could cause significant price jumps.

All eyes are on this meeting. Whatever the outcome, from traditional traders to stubborn crypto investors, everyone will be “glued” to the next developments as if it were the season finale of a long-anticipated series.