Recently, there has been a consensus in the industry that crypto sentiment is beginning to stabilize and the downside risk of Bitcoin is easing. The first reaction is "This is a psychological recovery after bottoming out, but don’t expect a sharp rise immediately."

Looking at this signal in detail, the bottoming signs in the greed and fear index reflect that retail investors' panic selling has basically dried up—by October, the wave of leverage liquidations had been mostly digested. Market sentiment has shifted from "extreme fear" to "relatively rational," indicating that short-term selling pressure has indeed eased significantly. However, analysis also points out a practical issue: "It’s difficult to quickly return to previous highs." The core reason is the lack of incremental funds and new hot narratives to support the market. Currently, only a recovery phase is possible; a full-blown bull market cannot be launched directly.

From a market logic perspective, it’s clear: this is a "rebound recovery period," not a "sustained upward trend." Bitcoin will gradually test higher levels, but the process will inevitably involve repeated oscillations—large gains may trigger some investors to take profits and cut losses, while dips attract bottom-fishing capital, making the rhythm quite turbulent.

Participants’ strategies should also be adjusted accordingly: previously, it was "hold steady without selling," now it needs to shift to "flexible swing trading"—reducing positions in stages during upward moves to lock in profits, and accumulating in stages during declines. This way, you won’t miss the recovery, and you can continuously optimize your cost basis. Holding stubbornly without action is definitely not advisable, and chasing highs can easily lead to pitfalls. The current market rhythm simply cannot support a "heavy long-term holding" approach.

Another key understanding to update is that: 2026 does not have a solid foundation for a one-sided bull run. This year is likely to be characterized by "range-bound fluctuations with local opportunities." Investors need to get used to high selling and low buying, abandoning the old routine of "holding and not letting go."

In short, the market has climbed out of the "panic bottom," but it’s still a bit early for a real bull run. Stable sentiment is a good sign, but the pace must slow down. Participating through swing trading during the recovery phase is much more flexible and efficient than stubbornly holding on.