When conducting project analysis or market judgment, you might try this "Hypothetical Stress Testing" approach:

Step 1: Clarify your entire reasoning logic and list all implicit or explicit assumptions. These assumptions could relate to market cycles, technological development, regulatory directions, or even human nature assumptions.

Step 2: Examine each of these assumptions individually, identifying the most unstable and easily broken ones. Ask yourself: if this assumption is reversed, does my conclusion still hold?

This method helps you identify the vulnerabilities in your reasoning. More important than the prediction itself is understanding where your analysis framework might fail.