Five emerging consensus points on the future of cryptocurrencies in 2026: what to expect

As 2025 comes to an end, the crypto landscape is preparing for significant transformations. A study of over 30 forecasts from renowned research institutions—Galaxy Research, a16z, Delphi Digital, Bitwise, Hashdex, Coinbase—and leading industry researchers reveals five trends with broad consensus for the coming year.

Privacy returns to the forefront: from privacy coins to data control

Privacy is set to be the surprise of the sector in 2025, with performances that have even surpassed bitcoin. With increasing transfer of capital and data on the blockchain, exposure has become an unsustainable cost, transforming privacy from a theoretical ideal to a concrete necessity for institutional operators.

Galaxy Research predicts that the market capitalization of privacy coins will reach $100 billion by the end of 2026. In just the last quarter of 2025, Zcash grew by 800%, Railgun by 204%, while Monero saw a more moderate increase of 53%. This acceleration reflects substantial demand and the previously underestimated importance of privacy as a critical infrastructure.

Adeniyi Abiodun, co-founder of Mysten Labs, explores the issue from a broader perspective: it’s not just about anonymous cryptocurrencies, but an infrastructure problem related to data. As autonomous agent systems begin to trade and make decisions without human intervention, the lack of verifiable mechanisms for data access presents an insurmountable obstacle, especially in financial and healthcare sectors. The proposed solution is a native “secrets-as-a-service” infrastructure: executable access rules, client-side encryption, and decentralized key management systems, applied directly on-chain rather than relying on manual processes.

Stablecoins: from crypto tool to foundation of global finance

Stablecoins represent the narrative with the highest level of consensus among analysts. By 2026, these coins will complete their transition from “crypto instrument” to “mainstream financial infrastructure.”

a16z’s numbers are incontrovertible: stablecoins have already generated approximately $46 trillion in transaction volume. To put this in context: it’s 20 times the annual volume of PayPal, nearly 3 times that of Visa, and approaching the size of the US ACH network. However, the real bottleneck is not demand but actual integration into daily financial circuits—deposits, withdrawals, payments, settlements, and consumption.

A new generation of startups is directly addressing this problem. Some use cryptographic proofs to enable conversion of local balances into digital dollars without compromising privacy; others integrate directly with regional banking networks and real-time payment systems; still others are building interoperable global wallets and card issuance platforms.

Sam Broner of a16z emphasizes the deep significance of this development from an engineering perspective: current banking systems are obsolete. The mainframes and COBOL systems they run on are stable and regulated but almost impossible to evolve quickly. Adding a simple real-time payment can take months. Stablecoins offer a parallel, modular alternative.

Galaxy Research predicts that by the end of 2026, 30% of international payments will use stablecoins. Bitwise estimates that total market capitalization will double, with the GENIUS Act at the start of 2026 serving as the main catalyst. The conclusion is clear: 2026 will mark the transition of stablecoins from the periphery to the center of mainstream finance.

AI agents as primary participants in on-chain economy

Intelligent agents will become key players in economic activities on the blockchain, a transformation that many underestimate in terms of implementation speed. The logic is straightforward: when agents autonomously execute tasks, make decisions, and interact at high frequency, they naturally require a fast, inexpensive, permissionless value transfer system—similar to data transmission.

Traditional payment systems are designed for humans with accounts, identities, and settlement cycles. Stablecoins paired with protocols like x402 are practically designed for agents: instant settlement, support for micropayments, programmability, and permissionless operation. 2026 could be the first year in which the payment infrastructure of the agent economy moves from experimentation to widespread use.

Sean Neville of a16z identifies the real bottleneck: the issue is no longer “insufficient intelligence” but “nonexistent identity.” In the financial system, non-human identities outnumber human employees 96 to 1 but remain “ghosts without bank accounts.” The concept of KYA—Know Your Agent—equivalent to KYC for algorithms—is missing. Before this is implemented, many merchants can only block agents at the firewall level. If KYC took decades to develop, KYA might require only months.

Lucas Tcheyan of Galaxy Research quantifies this phenomenon: he predicts that x402-compliant payments will account for 30% of daily volume on Base and 5% of non-voting transactions on Solana by 2026. Base will benefit from Coinbase’s promotion of the x402 standard, while Solana will leverage its developer base, and new payment-focused blockchains will grow rapidly.

Tokenized real assets: from periphery to mainstream collateral

The RWA (Real World Assets) narrative has evolved from a “anything can be tokenized” outlook to a much more sober perspective focused on actual enforceability. Guy Wuollet of a16z criticizes current tokenized assets: although they show great interest from banks and wealth managers, most “tokenization” remains essentially a simulation with “new technological wrapping” but underlying traditional logic.

Galaxy Research foresees a structural shift: a major bank or broker will start accepting tokenized shares as official collateral. This would move from marginal DeFi experiments to actual integration into the traditional financial system. Leading financial infrastructure providers are accelerating migration to blockchain-based systems, while regulators are increasingly favorable.

Hashdex expresses even more ambitious forecasts, estimating a tenfold growth of tokenized real assets, supported by clearer regulation, institutional readiness, and technological maturity.

Predictive markets: from decentralized betting to information aggregation tools

Contrary to expectations, the growth engine of predictive markets is not “decentralized gambling” but their role as information aggregation and decision support tools. Andy Hall of a16z, a Stanford economist, argues that these markets have already surpassed the threshold of mainstream feasibility.

In the coming year, with deeper integration of crypto and AI, predictive markets will become larger and more sophisticated, though with new complexities: high trading frequencies, rapid informational feedback, automated participatory structures. These changes amplify value but pose constructive challenges, especially in fair outcome judgment.

Will Owens of Galaxy Research predicts that weekly volume on Polymarket will consistently exceed $1.5 billion in 2026, driven by improved capital efficiency, AI-driven order flows increasing transaction frequency, and Polymarket’s evolving distribution capacity. Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise is even more aggressive, forecasting that open interest will surpass the record set during the 2024 US presidential elections, fueled by US user access and expansion into economy, sports, and pop culture beyond politics.

Tomasz Tunguz estimates that adoption among the American population will grow from the current 5% to 35% by 2026—close to the adoption rate of American gambling at 56%. However, Galaxy warns of potential federal investigations: with rapid volume and open interest growth, scandals involving insiders and manipulation may emerge. The pseudonymity of on-chain markets amplifies the temptation of insider trading compared to regulated gambling platforms with strict KYC.

Additional reflections: from value capture in protocols to applications

Beyond these five main narratives, almost all institutions have offered additional observations, not universally shared but significant. The most notable concerns the shift in value capture trend: the “thick protocols” theory is gradually replacing that of “thick applications.” Value is no longer concentrated in the base layers and general protocols but is migrating to the application layer, where direct contact with users, data, and cash flows occurs.

This transition raises fascinating questions about Ethereum, the traditional representative of “thick protocols” aspiring to be the world computer. As value migrates to the application layer, Ethereum could evolve into a “necessary but ordinary base network,” with most value absorbed by upper application layers, or it could continue to benefit as the foundation of tokenization and financial infrastructure.

For bitcoin, the general analysis anticipates positive performance in 2026, supported by increasing institutional demand through ETFs and derivatives, consolidating its role as a macro asset and “digital gold.” A more shadowed consideration concerns the real threat posed by quantum computing in the medium to long term.