Bitcoin: institutional purchases regain the upper hand over the circulating supply

Corporate Demand Changes the Game of Market Dynamics

After weeks of selling pressure, the latest data reveal an interesting trend: institutional investors are finally buying Bitcoin at a rate higher than the new supply generated by miners. According to analysis from the quantitative fund Capriole Investments, in the last three days institutional demand has exceeded the amount of BTC just mined, marking the first such event since the end of November.

The numbers speak for themselves: institutions are currently accumulating 13% more than the network’s daily supply. Although modest compared to the peaks of the previous bull cycle, this signal represents a significant shift in market sentiment.

The Path Between Highs and Recent Pullbacks

The period from the $126,000 peak to the $80,500 lows has put strong pressure on both retail traders and companies with Bitcoin accumulation strategies. At the center of attention remains Strategy, the company with the largest treasury of its kind globally, which has continued acquiring BTC despite price difficulties and stock performance challenges.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, highlighted this week a “break in corporate flows,” evidenced by record discounts among treasury companies and increasing leverage. This suggests that although the network’s fundamentals support a bullish entry, pressures from treasuries could complicate the path toward price recovery.

ETFs and Strategic Accumulation: Diverging Signals

The on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant described the current situation as a “transition market,” where short-term pessimism directly clashes with strategic accumulation behaviors by major players.

However, a concerning divergence has emerged: net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $635 million in just two days between Monday and Tuesday this week. Some analysts interpret this movement as a “tactical reconditioning” rather than a definitive exit from the market.

GugaOnChain from CryptoQuant observed that this contradiction highlights how Bitcoin is oscillating between immediate stress and medium-to-long-term appreciation expectations. The network’s fundamentals continue to support strategic entry, suggesting that withdrawals from institutional vehicles could be reallocations rather than structural distrust in the project.

The Turning Point in the Markets

With BTC trading around $91.99K, the market is in a consolidation phase after the October highs. The emergence of a positive net institutional demand, for the first time in weeks, could indicate that the floor has been tested and potentially found. Traders are continuing to monitor whether this signal marks the beginning of a new phase of institutional accumulation or a tactical rebound before further volatility.