Gate Research Institute: Bitcoin mining difficulty decreases | Ethereum absorbs nearly $50 billion in funding over the past year

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

• BTC (+0.21% | Current price 91,589 USDT): BTC has shown a slightly bullish trend over the past day, with the price bouncing back above the short-term moving average system after a pullback. Currently trading above MA5, MA10, and MA30, the short-term structure has been somewhat repaired. The moving average system is gradually shifting to a bullish alignment, indicating that buying pressure is beginning to take the lead, but resistance remains near previous highs. The MACD is above the zero line and continues to diverge upward, with the momentum histogram steadily increasing, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Overall, BTC remains in a rebound phase within a range; if it can effectively hold above $92,000, it may further test the resistance zone of $93,000–$94,000. Conversely, if it falls back and breaks below the $90,800–$91,000 range, traders should watch for the risk of oscillation and pullback.
• ETH (+0.23% | Current price 3,131 USDT): ETH’s trend remains relatively stable, with the price gradually rising along the short-term moving averages. MA5 and MA10 are turning upward and gradually approaching MA30, indicating a mild strengthening of the short-term trend. The overall volatility is smaller than BTC, with funds leaning toward defensive allocations. The MACD is positioned slightly above the zero line, with the fast and slow lines maintaining a bullish structure, but momentum release remains restrained. Overall, ETH is in a low-volatility correction phase; if it can hold above $3,150, it may further test the $3,200–$3,250 range. Key support levels are at $3,080–$3,100; a break below could lead to a return to sideways consolidation.
• Altcoins: The Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, still in the “fear” zone, slightly lower than yesterday but significantly above the lows of the “Extreme Fear” stage last month.
• Macro: On January 9, the S&P 500 rose 0.65%, closing at 6,966.28 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.48%, closing at 49,504.07 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.81%, closing at 23,671.35 points. As of 10:45 AM ( UTC+8 on January 12, spot gold is priced at $4,579 per ounce, up 1.52% in the past 24 hours.

Hot Tokens in the Market

XCN Onyxcoin (+16.84%, Market Cap $397 million)

According to Gate data, XCN is currently priced at $0.009482, up approximately 16.84% in 24 hours. Onyxcoin is the core token within the Onyx Protocol ecosystem, positioned as infrastructure for decentralized finance and on-chain governance, building an open DeFi network around lending, governance voting, and protocol incentives. Onyx advances protocol upgrades and ecosystem expansion through DAO governance, with XCN serving as the governance and incentive token, playing a key role in community participation, proposal voting, and potential ecosystem incentives.

The significant rise in XCN this round mainly stems from recent intensive releases of community and ecosystem developments, restoring sentiment and boosting expectations. The project announced that onyx.org now officially supports a Korean interface, signaling clear regional expansion intentions; simultaneously, discussions around incentives for the Goliath testnet continue, with the community having voted on governance proposals exploring testnet reward mechanisms, and more detailed XCN testnet reward structures are expected to be announced soon.

ARC AI Rig Complex (+16.52%, Market Cap $50.48 million)

According to Gate data, FHE is currently priced at $0.05111, up 16.52% in 24 hours. AI Rig Complex is an application-oriented project built around an AI Agent development framework and modular runtime environment, aiming to provide developers with more efficient tools for building, debugging, and deploying AI Agents.

The recent rise of ARC mainly results from ongoing releases of developer ecosystem and product progress, raising expectations. The project team and core developers frequently update progress, clearly advancing documentation and practical content based on Rig architecture for AI Agents, and signaling “continuous delivery,” strengthening market confidence in execution. Additionally, updates related to products like Ryzone, including webpage plug-and-play, multi-task collaboration, and efficiency tools, further increase ARC’s exposure in the AI Agent toolchain narrative.

VVV Venice Token (+23.53%, Market Cap $146 million)

According to Gate data, VVV is currently priced at $3.4134, up approximately 23.53% in 24 hours. Venice is an AI application and API platform emphasizing privacy-friendly and open model access, providing users with multi-model inference services without local GPU requirements and allowing anonymous use. The platform supports mainstream and open-source models including GLM-4.7, adopting a pay-per-use mechanism to lower entry barriers for developers and individual users.

The rapid rise of VVV this round mainly results from synchronized product progress and tokenomics actions that resonated emotionally. The project recently announced that GLM-4.7 is officially online and set as the default model, with differentiated pricing and use cases for inference and non-inference versions, strengthening Venice’s competitive position in the “high-performance inference + on-demand payment” track. Meanwhile, the platform completed a new round of VVV token burn, with a total burn rate exceeding 43%, reinforcing deflationary expectations.

Alpha Insights

Vitalik Buterin points out structural deficiencies in Ethereum’s stablecoin system, with de-dollarization demands gradually emerging

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently stated that the decentralized stablecoin system within the Ethereum ecosystem remains in a relatively early stage. To support more long-term and robust financial applications, systemic upgrades are needed at the institutional design and economic model levels. He believes the primary issue is that stablecoin value anchoring overly relies on the US dollar as a single fiat currency, which may be feasible in the short term but could weaken the system’s resilience under macro policy changes, geopolitical risks, and fiat currency credit fluctuations. Building a more neutral and decentralized value index as an anchor might better enhance Ethereum’s financial system long-term resilience.

Furthermore, Vitalik emphasizes that truly sustainable decentralized stablecoins must be paired with oracle mechanisms that are difficult for capital or single interest groups to manipulate; otherwise, the stability mechanism remains vulnerable to “structural capture.” He also points out potential competition between Ethereum’s staking mechanism and stablecoins/CDP systems: when staking yields are compressed to around 0.2%, such returns become unattractive to professional capital, making staking more suitable for low-risk, amateur participants. This suggests that in the future, Ethereum will need to rebalance staking incentives, stablecoin demand, and DeFi structures to prevent mechanisms from crowding each other out, which could impact overall ecosystem security and efficiency.

Bitcoin mining difficulty first declines in 2026, miners get a brief breather

In 2026, Bitcoin mining difficulty finally experienced a phased reduction, a rare adjustment after long-term high hash rate competition and cost pressures. The difficulty decrease means that the probability of earning block rewards per unit of hash power increases, providing miners with a more stable short-term output space and alleviating profit pressure for those with high-efficiency equipment and power costs. This change typically reflects some marginal hash power exiting the network, possibly due to rising energy costs, temporary price pressures, or old mining hardware being phased out.

On a deeper level, this difficulty adjustment does not necessarily indicate a fundamental reversal in the mining sector but rather a self-repair within the hash rate cycle. The Bitcoin network has a dynamic adjustment mechanism: when profit margins are continuously squeezed, inefficient miners naturally exit, causing difficulty to fall and allowing remaining miners to recover marginal gains. In the medium to long term, if Bitcoin’s price does not strengthen accordingly, hash rate and difficulty may remain volatile; however, if prices rebound, new hash power will quickly push difficulty higher, making this “breather” more of a short-term window rather than a structural turning point.

Ethereum has seen continuous net capital inflows over the past year, with significant long-term allocation demand

Over the past year, Ethereum has experienced nearly $50 billion in net capital inflows, indicating sustained market recognition of its long-term value and ecosystem prospects. Such a large-scale net inflow is unlikely to be driven solely by short-term trading sentiment, but rather by institutional funds, long-term investors, and internal ecosystem capital accumulation, including staking, DeFi protocol locking, and layer-2 network expansion, reflecting growing structural demand. Despite increased market volatility, ETH has maintained stable capital absorption, further consolidating its position as a “core asset” among mainstream crypto assets.

Structurally, large net inflows also suggest that Ethereum is gradually shifting from a high-volatility risk asset to a more complex asset with both yield and infrastructure value. On one hand, staking continues to lock up circulating supply, strengthening long-term supply-demand dynamics; on the other hand, expanding use cases such as stablecoins, RWA, and application layer developments amplify ETH’s role as a settlement and security layer. This “capital inflow + usage demand” dual drive means ETH’s price performance is less dependent on sentiment cycles and more on ecosystem activity and capital allocation logic, providing a more solid fundamental support for long-term valuation.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• X, https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2010253778365055363
• X, https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2010253091757543481?s=20
• X, https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2010162495688781856?s=20

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