Bitcoin under pressure: when the three "horses of the apocalypse" of global liquidity move together

The week we are living through could go down in history as the moment when the market finally realized that bitcoin is not the safe-haven asset everyone believed it to be. Three crucial events are about to unfold simultaneously, each sending an unmistakable signal: the tide of global liquidity is receding, and along with it are the fundamental speculative factors that have supported the cryptocurrency’s price.

The context: fleeing liquidity, high-beta assets under siege

Before delving into the three events in detail, it is necessary to understand the overall picture. Despite the narrative of “digital gold,” bitcoin has proven to be a classic high-beta asset – a resource that amplifies movements in the broader market and is dramatically affected by the availability of global liquidity. With a 4-week volatility among the highest in the market, bitcoin has become the most sensitive barometer of macroeconomic tensions.

When liquidity is abundant, prices rise. When it recedes, prices collapse. It’s that simple.

The first blow: September non-farm payroll data

Tonight, the market will receive a peculiar report: the US September Non-Farm Payrolls, originally expected in early October but postponed to today due to a 48-day government shutdown. This report is a “rearview mirror” of data from over a month ago, and its value lies precisely in its ability to fill the informational gap left by weeks of administrative paralysis.

What to expect:

Estimates vary significantly: the market consensus points to 54,000 new jobs (improving from 22,000 in August), but Goldman Sachs offers a more optimistic reading at 80,000. However, economists still consider these numbers as indicators of a “weak” labor market, especially when compared to employment levels in previous years.

The real critical element is the annual revisions, which could be significant up to 800,000 units. If July and August data are drastically revised downward, expectations for the Federal Reserve would change radically, potentially opening the door to more aggressive rate cuts. But this scenario remains a minority view in market calculations.

Impact on bitcoin:

Limited, according to most analysts. Chairman Powell described the Fed’s decision-making process as “guiding in the fog,” and given the report’s significant delay, it’s likely the central bank will not assign it much weight. Bitcoin will only react if the data surprises radically in one direction or the other.

The second and third blows: CPI and the historic tightening by the Bank of Japan

If the Non-Farm Payrolls are the prelude, the true epicenters of the storm are forming elsewhere.

The US November CPI will be released on Thursday. The market expects a monthly increase of 0.3% with the annual rate remaining steady at 3%. But the risk is real: the prolonged absence of data could have masked underlying inflation pressures, resulting in the actual figure reaching 3.1%. If so, it would reinforce the “hawkish” stance of the Fed, tightening financial conditions further and delaying the rate cut even more.

The Bank of Japan’s December 19 decision is the moment the market truly fears. With an estimated 94% probability, the Japanese central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. This is not a simple technical adjustment: it represents the most significant annual increase in 35 years for the Bank of Japan, marking a definitive break from decades of ultra-expansive monetary policy.

The ghost haunting the markets: dismantling the yen carry trade

This is where bitcoin’s price truly begins to tremble.

For decades, the yen carry trade has been the silent engine of global liquidity. The mechanics are simple: international investors borrow yen at near-zero rates, convert them into dollars or other currencies, and invest in US Treasuries, Nasdaq stocks, or even bitcoin. It’s an arbitrage that has constantly fueled global markets with yen liquidity.

The Bank of Japan’s tightening hits this strategy on two fronts simultaneously:

1. Funding costs rise immediately: the yen loan rates increase directly.
2. The yen tends to appreciate: historically, rate hikes strengthen the local currency, creating exchange loss risks for traders who bet on a weak yen.

As a result, global portfolios will be unwound in cascade. Investors will need to sell Treasuries, US stocks, and yes, even bitcoin – to reconvert into yen and repay loans. This represents the most direct risk for a cryptocurrency that, now clearly classified as a high-beta asset with 4-week volatility, has no intrinsic defense against liquidity withdrawals.

Historical precedents are alarming: in March, July 2024, and January 2025, after previous Bank of Japan tightening episodes, bitcoin experienced drops exceeding 20%. However, according to CICC’s analysis, there is a mitigating factor: the rate hike has been largely priced in by the market, and the current size of the carry trade is below the peaks of 2024. The real threat only emerges if the rate increase converges with an unexpected macro shock (such as an outsized CPI): in that case, sentiment and algorithmic trading could resonate, amplifying sell-offs exponentially.

What current prices show

Recent bitcoin behavior tells a different story from the bullish narrative at the start of the year. The price has fallen significantly from the 2025 highs, constantly struggling below key support levels. When it dropped below $86,000, the market liquidated nearly $600 million in 24 hours, mainly long positions. This signals that leveraged speculation has been wiped out and the market structure is fragile.

Meanwhile, early-year institutional forecasts – which promised $150,000 or even $200,000 by year-end, based on ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts – proved gravely unrealistic. The message is clear: analyzing bitcoin without considering macro global liquidity dynamics is a fatal mistake.

The three scenarios for the coming week

Scenario 1: Moderate CPI + “dovish” signals from the Bank of Japan

Although unlikely, if inflation does not exceed expectations and the Japanese central bank accompanies the rate hike with promises of caution, the market might conclude that “all bad news is already priced in.” Bitcoin could technically rebound toward the $86,000–$88,000 range. But it would be a pause, not a trend reversal.

Scenario 2: Rising CPI + Bank of Japan tightening as expected (high probability)

This is the worst combination. Persistent inflation in the US combined with the Bank of Japan’s tightening creates a “synchronous liquidity drain.” Bitcoin would enter a new significant bearish phase; if supports break, the price could easily fall toward $78,000 or even lower.

Scenario 3: “Black swan” shock triggering a systemic flight to safety

If an unexpected macro event causes a collapse in traditional assets (such as US stocks), bitcoin would lose its independence entirely, following the market into a liquidity crisis crash.

The survival strategy: cash is king

For investors, the upcoming week demands strict discipline. Before the Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday, the wisest move is to go on the defensive. Cash, stability, patience.

The true market bottom will only arrive when panic over global liquidity tightening is fully priced into exchanges. Bitcoin’s next spring will inevitably begin when the Fed clearly moves toward accommodative policies and the global carry trade is fully unwound. Until then, any attempt to go against the trend risks being overwhelmed by the receding tide.