#密码资产动态追踪 Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2026? JPMorgan's Latest Outlook Refreshes Expectations

Wall Street's views on next year's interest rate trajectory are now completely divided.

JPMorgan recently issued a rather aggressive outlook: not only to revoke all rate cut expectations for 2026 but also to turn around and predict a possible rate hike in 2027. What does this 180-degree shift really reflect?

**Internal Power Struggles at the Fed**

At the December 2025 meeting, there was a rare disagreement within the Federal Reserve over rate cuts. Should they cut, and by how much? Everyone has their own ideas. Meanwhile, the Fed also raised its forecast for economic growth in 2026, which in itself indicates their cautious stance—if the economy is growing faster, why rush to cut rates?

**Contradictory Economic Realities**

The market faces a dilemma: inflation remains stubbornly above target, but there are signs of weakness in the labor market. Additionally, the potential fiscal stimulus from the "Big and Beautiful Act" looms—if implemented, it could give the economy a strong boost and potentially alter the Fed's policy pace.

**Uncertainty from Personnel Changes**

Fed Chair Powell's term will expire in May 2026. Who will be the new chair, and what will be their policy stance? This is the biggest unknown at the moment and a factor the market must consider in its pricing.

**How to Follow This?**

To stay on top of the developments, focus on a few key signals:

First, official Fed communications. The release of the December meeting minutes and the results of the upcoming January policy meeting are both critical points to watch.

Second, economic data itself. The performance of the US PCE Price Index and non-farm employment data in the coming months will directly influence the Fed's next moves.

Third, follow-up from authoritative financial media. Top-tier financial news agencies like Bloomberg and Reuters usually verify major forecasts thoroughly and provide subsequent reports; their confirmation is crucial.

In short, while JPMorgan's prediction is quite aggressive, it’s prudent to remain cautious until more official confirmation and widespread media validation are available. The link between the crypto market and traditional finance is becoming increasingly tight, and the Fed's policy direction directly impacts capital flows. This is indeed a topic that market participants should closely monitor.