Mike McGlone's Year-End Warning: Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk as Santa Rally Fades

The cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture as analysts debate whether Bitcoin can maintain its recent momentum or face significant headwinds before the year closes. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone has raised eyebrows with a bearish call, suggesting that BTC may finish 2024 trading below the $84,000 level—a stark contrast to the traditional year-end rally narrative that often drives market sentiment.

Market Structure Signals Mixed Messages

Bitcoin’s current price of $91.84K reflects an intraday gain of 1.34%, yet the underlying market structure reveals fragmentation. According to FxPro’s senior market strategist Alex Kuptsikevich, the digital asset has been establishing a pattern of gradually higher local peaks and troughs since late November. However, this technical formation lacks conviction. For the uptrend to gain real traction, the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization would need to breach the $3.32 trillion threshold. At present, the total crypto market cap sits around $3.16 trillion—up 2.5% from the start of the week but still trailing the previous resistance level of $3.21 trillion.

The current price structure suggests Bitcoin remains confined within a defined trading band, with immediate support forming around the $90,000-$91,000 zone. Should this level hold firm, the next battleground appears near $94,000. A breakdown below current support could see price exploration of the broader range bottom, though the exact level depends on broader macro conditions and fund flows.

Leverage Unwind Pressures the Market

The recent price pressure stems partly from forced position liquidations rather than fundamental weakness. CoinGlass data reveals that $376 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours—roughly three times the volume of short liquidations. This asymmetry suggests overleveraged bullish bets have become a liability, creating mechanical selling pressure that weighs on price action regardless of underlying sentiment.

Diverging Analyst Forecasts Create Uncertainty

Wall Street prognostication remains divided. QCP Capital has penciled in a trading range of $84,000 to $100,000 for the final weeks of the year, positioning for potential volatility without directional conviction. Meanwhile, Mike McGlone’s more cautious stance diverges sharply—he contends that the festive “Santa Claus rally” phenomenon may not materialize, and suggests BTC could end the period below $84,000, implying a potential 8% decline from current levels.

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut announcement, while headline-positive, has failed to ignite sustained optimism. Market participants have moderated expectations for future rate reductions, with some forecasters suggesting the central bank may pause its easing cycle sooner than previously thought. This recalibration has limited the upside support typically associated with dovish monetary policy.

What’s Priced In and What Isn’t

The market is now fixating on next week’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, where possible leadership transitions could signal a shift toward more accommodative policy—a scenario that would theoretically benefit risk assets. However, until such clarity emerges, Bitcoin appears caught between competing narratives: the promise of easier financial conditions versus the reality of current fund liquidations and technical resistance.

For traders watching Bitcoin at $91.84K, the near-term focus remains binary: either defend the $90,000-$91,000 support convincingly or risk testing lower levels that align more closely with the $84,000 threshold Mike McGlone has flagged.