2026: The Breakthrough Year – From Speculation to Utility and Integration

CoinShares, a European digital asset management firm with (AUM over $6 billion), published an extensive 77-page report titled “Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins”. The main takeaway is clear: the digital assets industry is transitioning from a speculative phase to a value-driven phase with cash flows. Digital assets are no longer aiming to replace the traditional financial system—instead, they are strengthening and modernizing it.

Macroeconomics with a dark cloud: Recession scenario in the US is no longer a fantasy

2026 is a year of macroeconomic uncertainty. The report identifies three scenarios, each with different implications for Bitcoin and other digital assets:

Optimistic scenario: Soft landing combined with surprising productivity growth. Bitcoin could surpass $150,000.

Base case: Slow, stagnating economic expansion. Bitcoin fluctuates between $110,000 and $140,000.

Bearish scenario – recession or stagflation: Here, the US scenario looks bleak. If a recession occurs, Bitcoin could fall into the $70,000–$100,000 range.

Key threats to the economy include: tariff disruptions could keep core inflation high, the Fed will be cautious with rate cuts (may fall to ~3%, but slowly), and the dollar is losing ground—its share in global reserves has dropped from 70% (year 2000) to about 50% today.

This erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status matters: structurally, it supports Bitcoin as a non-state store of value. But if the US falls into recession, safe haven assets may become unstable.

Bitcoin mainstreaming – but actual adoption still crawling forward

In 2025, Bitcoin achieved several breakthroughs: spot ETFs (and options on them), removal of limits in retirement plans, fair value principles for companies, the US recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. The theory states: bubbles have burst, institutions should buy.

Practically? Mediocre. Traditional wealth management channels, retirement plan providers, compliance teams—all are still adapting. Actual institutional adoption has barely started.

For 2026, the report expects: four major brokers will enable investment in Bitcoin ETFs, at least one provider of 401(k) plans will approve Bitcoin, at least two S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin, and at least two large trust banks will offer custodial services.

Modest? Yes. But for an industry waiting for years—this is progress.

Bitcoin mining: Who owns, risks—Strategy and domino effect

The number of Bitcoins held by public companies has exploded: from 266,000 (2024) to 1,048,000 (2025), with value rising from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion.

Problem: Strategy (MSTR) owns 61%, and the top 10 firms control 84%. This is risk centralization.

Threats to Strategy are serious:

• Annual cash flow is about $680 million, but perpetual debt and obligations are problematic
• Refinancing: bonds mature in September 2028
• If market-to-NAV drops to 1x or refinancing becomes impossible at zero interest—forced Bitcoin sales threaten a domino effect

The development of the IBIT options market has reduced Bitcoin volatility, signaling market maturity. But decreased volatility weakens demand for convertible bonds, which could reduce purchasing power.

In spring 2025, a reversal occurred—volatility declined, along with potential growth momentum.

Regulatory landscape: EU clear, US divided, Asia cautious

EU and MiCA: The most comprehensive framework worldwide—issuance, custodianship, trading, stablecoins. But 2025 revealed coordination weaknesses: national authorities sometimes challenge cross-border passports.

US: The deepest capital market, but regulations are dispersed among SEC, CFTC, Fed. The stablecoin (GENIUS Act) was passed, but implementation is ongoing.

Asia: Approaching Basel III standards—capital and liquidity requirements for cryptocurrencies. Singapore maintains a risk-based licensing system. Asia is creating a more cohesive regulatory bloc.

Hybrid finance: Stablecoins, RWA, and decentralized exchanges transforming the market

Stablecoins: Capitalization exceeds $300 billion. Ethereum dominates, but Solana is growing fastest. The GENIUS Act requires issuers to hold reserves in government bonds—creating new demand for US Treasury securities.

Decentralized exchanges: Monthly trading volume exceeds $600 billion. Solana handles up to $40 billion daily.

Real-world asset tokenization (RWA): Total value increased from $1.5 billion (early 2025) to $3.5 billion. Fastest-growing segments: private credit tokenization, US Treasury bonds, gold (exceeded $1.3 billion). The BlackRock BUIDL fund and JPMorgan JPMD demonstrate potential.

Revenue-generating on-chain applications: Protocols earn hundreds of millions annually. Hyperliquid allocates 99% of revenue to daily token buybacks. Tokens are increasingly resembling equities rather than purely speculative assets.

Stablecoin dominance: Tether and Circle control the game

Tether (USDT) holds 60% of the market, Circle (USDC) 25%. New players (PayPal PYUSD) face network effects—difficult to break the duopoly.

Expectations for 2026:

• Payment processors: Visa, Mastercard, Stripe have potential to switch to stablecoin settlements without UX changes
• Banks: JPMorgan with JPM Coin already shows potential, Siemens reports FX savings up to 50%, settlement times shortened from days to seconds
• E-commerce platforms: Shopify accepts USDC, Asian and Latin American markets test stablecoin payments

Threat: If the Fed cuts rates to 3%, issuers will need to issue an additional $88.7 billion in stablecoins to maintain current interest income.

Ethereum vs Solana: The game for dominance continues

Ethereum: From sandbox to institutional infrastructure. The Rollup roadmap increased Layer-2 throughput from 200 TPS to 4,800 TPS. Spot ETF on Ethereum attracted about $13 billion. BlackRock BUIDL and JPMD show Ethereum as an institutional-grade platform.

Solana: Paradigm of performance. ~7% of total DeFi TVL, stablecoins exceeded $12 billion (growth from $1.8 billion in January 2024), RWA flourishing, BUIDL grew from $25 million to $250 million. Upgrades: Firedancer client, DoubleZero network. The spot ETF launched on October 28 attracted $382 million net.

Other chains: Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, Hyperliquid compete through differentiation. Hyperliquid dominates derivatives, accounting for >1/3 of total blockchain revenue. The market is fragmented, but EVM compatibility is becoming a competitive advantage.

Mining transforms: HPC replaces traditional mining

In 2025, computational power of listed miners increased by 110 EH/s. Miners announced HPC contracts worth $65 billion.

By the end of 2026: Bitcoin mining revenues will fall from 85% to below 20%. HPC margins are 80-90%.

Future of mining: ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, interrupted mining (coexistence with HPC), state-run mining. Long-term, mining may return to small-scale, decentralized operations.

Venture capital: Revival and four main trends

VC funding in crypto reached $18.8 billion in 2025 (surpassing the entire 2024: $16.5 billion). Major deals: Polymarket $2 billion, Stripe $500 million, Kalshi $300 million.

Four trends for 2026:

1. RWA tokenization: SPAC Securitize, Series A Agora $50 million
2. AI + cryptocurrencies: AI agents, natural language trading interfaces
3. Retail investment platforms: Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million), Legion, decentralized angel platforms
4. Bitcoin infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning Network attract attention

Prediction markets: From trend to institution

During the 2024 US presidential election, weekly volume on Polymarket exceeded $800 million. Post-election, activity remained high.

Prediction accuracy: events with 60% probability occurred in about 60% of cases, those with 80%—in 77-82%. ICE invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket—main financial institutions recognize its value.

For 2026: weekly volume could exceed $2 billion.

Summary: Four pillars of transformation

1. Maturation: Digital assets are shifting from speculation to cash flows. Tokens increasingly resemble stocks.

2. Hybrid finance: Integration of public blockchains with traditional finance is no longer theoretical—it’s reality. Stablecoins, RWA, on-chain applications are proof.

3. Regulatory clarity: GENIUS in the US, MiCA in the EU, cautious frameworks in Asia—these are the foundations of institutional adoption.

4. Institutional adoption: Despite removing barriers, it will take years. 2026 is a year of private sector progress, not explosion.

5. Rebuilding competition: Ethereum dominates, but Solana and other high-performance chains pose challenges. EVM compatibility is key.

6. Risks and opportunities: High concentration of Bitcoins in firms risks forced sales. But institutional tokenization, stablecoin adoption, prediction markets—huge growth potential.

In the end: 2026 is the year digital assets move from the margins to the mainstream, from speculation to utility, from fragmentation to integration. But the road will be slow, and threats (especially a US recession scenario) remain real.