Technical Signals Flag a Potential End to Bitcoin's Rally Cycle

Bitcoin’s long-term trend indicator has undergone a significant reversal, raising questions about whether the cryptocurrency’s sustained upward momentum has exhausted itself. Multiple market observers are now scrutinizing technical patterns that traditionally signal transitions between market phases.

When Technical Indicators Reverse Direction

The most notable development centers on the 200-day moving average, a key metric that mathematically represents Bitcoin’s average price over the past 200 trading days. This critical level crossed below the 50-day moving average in mid-November—an occurrence known as a “death cross”—and has remained oriented downward since. Alongside this, the 200-day trend indicator itself has shifted, accompanied by expanded price volatility, increased trading volume spikes, and time spent trading beneath this mathematical barrier.

According to crypto analyst “Crypto₿irb,” who commands 700,000 followers, the confluence of these factors—from a technical framework perspective—indicates that the expansion phase may have concluded. He attributes this to a sustained directional change, confirmed through price action distribution, volume behavior, and breadth deterioration, projecting 2026 as a year of potential declines.

Market Participants Divided on Severity

The interpretation of these signals has sparked debate among professionals. Markus Thielen from 10x Research stated unequivocally that Bitcoin exists in a contraction phase, though he characterizes current price action as a “bear market reversal rally.” In contrast, Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of Apollo Capital, offered a more nuanced perspective. He acknowledged that the wave of purchasing from digital asset treasuries observed during the first half of this year has abated, but cautioned against immediately categorizing this as a trend reversal. Andersson emphasized that broader risk asset movements will ultimately dictate direction, making tactical selectivity paramount for investors.

Near-Term Dynamics and Price Levels

BTC is currently trading at $91.77K with a 24-hour appreciation of 1.26%. On a four-hour timeframe, analyst “Skew” identified more favorable momentum conditions for buyers, suggesting that if purchasing pressure can be sustained, upside potential remains viable. However, a decline below $88,000 would signal weakening momentum and failed upside attempts. The $90,000-$92,000 zone represents a critical battleground where the market structure itself will be contested. Bitcoin briefly approached $92,000 during Thursday’s early session before retreating to $91,200.