#ETH Market pattern fundamental shift: from a rebound within a downtrend to the early stage of an uptrend.

Fundamental shift in trend and structure (core bullish basis):

4-hour chart: Price ($3,153) has clearly broken through and stood above the previously emphasized strong resistance zone $3,130 - $3,150. MACD(2.64) has formed a golden cross, and KDJ/RSI are in strong zones. This confirms the end of the medium-term downtrend and the start of a new upward wave. This is the macro background for all current analyses.

Current contradictions and risks (short-term caution against chasing the rally):

Severe short-term overbought conditions: J values of KDJ on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts reach 77-85, RSI(6) between 65-74, all entering short-term overbought territory. This indicates that the upward momentum driving this breakout is exhausted in the short term, and a technical pullback is imminent.

Poor position: The current price $3,153 is close to the upper Bollinger Band on all timeframes, indicating a short-term high. Opening new long positions at this level carries a very poor risk-reward ratio.

Key price level matrix:

Resistance above (potential target): $3,170 - $3,190

Core support below (ideal long zone):

Strong pullback zone: $3,115 - $3,125 (just broke through this platform, now turns into first support).

Healthy correction zone: $3,075 - $3,090 (a strong support platform tested multiple times previously, with a better risk-reward ratio).

Follow-up high-probability trading strategies

You are holding cash, occupying the most advantageous position. The next strategy is: abandon the contrarian idea of “shorting,” give up the impulse to “chase high,” and patiently wait for the market to provide a pullback entry opportunity.

Specific action plan:

Act immediately: Maintain absolute cash position, set alerts

Strictly prohibit opening any new positions near the current price $3,153.

Set price alerts: Focus on $3,120 (first retracement level) and $3,090 (deep retracement level).

Be patient and plan two long entry paths

Path A (preferred, best risk-reward): Wait for a pullback to the strong support zone to go long

Ideal zone: $3,115 - $3,125.

Trigger signal: Price retraces to this zone and shows a clear bullish reversal candle on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing, morning star).

Action: Once the signal appears, enter a light long position.

Stop-loss: Must be set below $3,100 (i.e., break below the key platform).

Target: Test $3,170 - $3,190 again.

Path B (alternative, requires more patience): Wait for a deeper retracement to the strong support zone to go long

Ideal zone: $3,075 - $3,090.

Trigger signal: Same as above, requiring a clear stabilization candle signal.

Action: This area offers a better risk-reward ratio and can be used as the main position entry zone, with stop-loss below $3,060.

Regarding the “absolutely forbidden” shorting:

In the context of a confirmed uptrend on the 4-hour chart, any contrarian short position is high risk and should be completely abandoned.

Your final action checklist:

The market has confirmed the direction with a breakout. What you need now is discipline and patience to turn cash into profits on the next trend.

Strictly execute:

Stay on the sidelines: continue to hold no positions, no operations.

Set alerts: configure price alerts at $3,120 and $3,090.

Wait for the gift: patiently wait for a healthy correction. When the price enters the support zones above and shows bullish candle signals, execute a light, low-leverage (≤20x) long plan.

Remember the rule: if the price refuses to retrace and goes straight up, then calmly miss the opportunity and never chase high. Bull markets are won by waiting, not by rushing.

In an uptrend, the greatest profit comes from buying during a “healthy correction,” not from chasing after a “breakout frenzy.” You are already holding cash, occupying the most proactive position. Now, please exercise extreme patience and wait for the market to deliver this “pullback buy” gift.