Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle is "Warped" - Is It Still Reliable?

From the peak of 125,000 USD in October 2025, Bitcoin dropped below 90,000 USD in just one month, a decline of over 25% that unsettled investors. But the real question is not whether Bitcoin will go up or down, but whether the familiar four-year halving cycle still functions as before? Currently, Bitcoin is around 90,720 USD, but more important is understanding what the market is actually doing.

The Cycle Has Changed - Three Clear Signs

Compared to previous cycles, this rally shows notable differences.

Weaker growth than historical

Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin has only increased from 70,000 USD to 126,000 USD, about 1.8 times. This is unprecedented:

• 2012 halving: Bitcoin increased 96 times (from 12 USD to 1,160 USD)
• 2016 halving: 30 times (from 650 USD to 19,700 USD)
• 2020 halving: 7.7 times (from 8,700 USD to 67,000 USD)
• 2024 halving: only 1.8 times

New capital flows are weakening, the upward momentum is no longer “crazy” as before. Even from late 2022 bottom to peak, Bitcoin increased 7-8 times, but this figure cannot trigger the mass euphoria seen in 2017 or 2021.

Altcoins are not catching up, market sentiment is absent

In every traditional bull run, altcoins surged strongly, retail investors flooded into the market. This time? Bitcoin’s market dominance remains close to 59%—indicating most funds are still in major coins, with no typical “rotation” from Bitcoin to altcoins.

What happened to the once lively on-chain capital? Now, large withdrawals dominate. Last week, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 523 million USD in a single day, totaling over 2 billion USD last month. This negative feedback loop is even clearer when institutions hold an average value of 89,000 USD, creating a support zone despite reduced investor enthusiasm.

Market rhythm is smoother, but less dynamic

Previously, bull runs involved decisive jumps. Now, with institutional ETF participation, capital flows follow a “rational” logic, with reduced volatility, more stable trading rhythms but less excitement. ETFs are “slow” capital—continually inflowing when rising, with some buyers at dips, leading to fewer big waves.

Three Factors Causing the “Deformation” of the Cycle

Why does the halving cycle still operate but look different?

1. Positive intervention from Bitcoin ETF market structure

Since ETFs launched, institutions have become the main force. They not only bring large capital but also create price stability—this is the biggest difference from the fully retail-driven market of the past.

Their average holding of 89,000 USD now acts as an effective support zone, but also a critical boundary. When institutions withdraw funds, the market loses the “emotional cushion” from retail investors to offset declines.

2. Fragmented narratives, hot spots spinning

The 2020-2021 bull market had clear value drivers: DeFi, NFTs. Today’s market? A collection of temporary hot spots:

• Late 2023-2024: Bitcoin ETF, Inscription
• 2024: Solana, Meme coins emerge
• Crypto AI, AI Agents become trending
• 2025: InfoFi, Prediction markets, x402 cycles appear

Hot topics shift rapidly, lacking sustainability. Capital lacks long-term focal points, making it hard to form medium- and long-term investment structures. The market resembles a “water dragon” rather than the “tsunami waves” of old.

3. The cycle is “self-affected”—publicized reflexivity

Everyone knows the halving rule. Therefore, everyone bets in advance, takes profits early. This is a self-fulfilling effect: when everyone expects a rise, the market is discounted early.

Additionally, holders of ETFs, market makers, miners… also adjust strategies according to the cycle. When prices approach the theoretical peak, early profit-taking by these groups amplifies, distorting the cycle rhythm.

The Fundamentals Still Remain—What Has Not Been Lost

Despite apparent chaos, the basic laws of the cycle still exist:

The supply logic of halving still works

Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and this mechanism remains a key factor long-term. In April 2024, block rewards decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Although the total supply is nearly 94%, and the marginal impact diminishes, the expectation of scarcity still persists in the market.

On-chain data still reflects the cycle

• MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio): End of 2023 drops to 0.8, early 2025 adjusts below 2—consistent with the cycle
• SOPR (Sell/Buy Price Ratio): Bear market 2022 below 1, 2023 surpasses 1, bull markets 2024-2025 mostly above 1—follows the cycle

Gradual increase and decrease is an inevitable trend

From another perspective, the slower pace of each cycle peak compared to the previous is natural:

• 2013→2017: ~20x increase
• 2017→2021: ~3.5x increase
• 2021→2025: ~80x increase

This diminishing amplitude reflects the expanding market size, weakening new capital momentum—not that the cycle is invalid, but that it is maturing.

The Future of the Cycle—Lengthening, Not Disappearing

Experts split into two camps:

Bearish camp: The halving cycle is dead; Bitcoin now is influenced more by institutions than by the four-year cycle. Bitwise CEO believes the market entered a bear phase six months ago.

Bullish camp: Analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues this cycle is far from peaking, will last longer and reach higher highs. Market drivers are shifting due to institutional participation, regulation developments, macro factors—but the cycle still exists.

Neutral camp: The cycle doesn’t disappear, only “deforms”. Macro factors (such as Fed interest rates, US stock cycle) increasingly influence, but the basic rhythm still guides.

How to Survive in the New Market

Don’t rely solely on halving calendar predictions

The current market is a “multi-variable system”: ETF capital flows, macro liquidity, leverage structures, institutional positions, altcoin strength, miner selling pressure, US interest rates… You need to see the bigger picture.

Monitor on-chain data and institutional flows

Learn to read MVRV, SOPR, track ETF capital flows. Net inflows/outflows are direct indicators of short-term institutional sentiment.

Apply a barbell strategy—at least 50% Bitcoin

Use the rest to diversify into other assets. Your advantage is to cash out before the next peak.

Manage emotions—avoid leverage

Anyone using leverage suffers heavy losses, especially when using spot prices to increase leverage.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin cycle does not disappear, only becomes more complex. Market structure has changed, participants have changed, and sentiment transmission is different. The old way of looking at the calendar for bull-bear bets is outdated.

It’s not that halving loses effectiveness, but external factors—ETF, institutions, macroeconomics—have made the cycle more “smooth.” This may be permanent as Bitcoin increasingly integrates into traditional financial systems.

Understanding this “deformation” is key to surviving long-term in this unpredictable crypto world.