BlackRock 2026 Outlook Report: Digital assets are the infrastructure for payments and settlements; optimistic about AI-related US stock performance

On January 13, BlackRock recently published its 2026 Global Outlook report. The report emphasizes that AI infrastructure investment is enormous, leading to “micro is macro” effects, and presents challenges such as increased leverage and illusions of diversification. The overall stance remains pro-risk, with an overweight position in US equities (especially AI-related) and a positive outlook for active investment opportunities. The report highlights three core investment themes:

Micro is macro: AI infrastructure is dominated by a few companies, with capital expenditures large enough to influence the overall macroeconomy. Investments could reach $5-8 trillion (2025-2030), supporting US economic growth in 2026 (with investment contributions three times the historical average), demonstrating resilience even as the labor market cools. However, it remains uncertain whether revenues will be sufficient to match expenditures and how much will flow back to tech giants. The report suggests that AI may accelerate innovation, but historically, major technological revolutions over the past 150 years have not broken the long-term 2% growth trend in the US; however, a “growth breakout” scenario is now conceivable.

Leveraging up: Early-stage AI builders are making massive investments while revenues lag, leading to increased systemic leverage; combined with high government debt, this creates vulnerabilities. The report favors private credit and infrastructure financing. It recommends tactically underweighting long-term government bonds (such as US Treasuries) due to high leverage and rising capital costs being unfavorable for long-duration bonds.

Diversification mirage: Under dominant macro trends, traditional diversified allocations may actually be concentrated bets. Investors need to actively hold risk, maintain portfolio flexibility (with a Plan B), and seek unique return sources in private markets and hedge funds. The report specifically notes that BlackRock views digital assets (especially stablecoins) as infrastructure (the plumbing of the financial system) rather than mere speculative assets. Stablecoins are seen as the “digital dollar track,” evolving from crypto-native tools into bridges connecting traditional finance and digital liquidity, expanding into cross-border payments and settlement, especially in regions where traditional systems are slow, expensive, or fragmented. The report hints that crypto is integrating into mainstream finance, with stablecoins maturing into infrastructure that supports global liquidity flows and overlaps with traditional finance.