#密码资产动态追踪 $DOLO $DUSK $BTC

Don't rush to call a bear market! What does Bitcoin's 36% decline actually imply?

Bitcoin has dropped again, this time falling 36% from last October's $126,000. As accounts shrink, many start to shout that a bear market is coming. But data speaks for itself—looking back at 2013, 2017, and 2021, the declines after peaks ranged from 50% to 70%. We've only fallen 36% this time, which is still far from that.

Moreover, this correction only took 46 days to rebound. Comparing with the past, the mid-term retracement in 2024 lasted 147 days, and in 2025 it was 77 days. The timing and magnitude align with cyclical patterns. Frankly, this doesn't look like a bear market.

Most interestingly, Bitcoin has already regained the 50-day moving average at $89,400. Buyers are regaining the upper hand, and technical signals are very clear. Institutions haven't been idle either—Strategy recently invested $1.25 billion in one go, adding 13,600 BTC, bringing total holdings to 687,400 BTC, with an average cost of $75,000. These large holders' costs and actions, to some extent, serve as a bottoming reassurance.

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's bull cycle was already incomplete. Now, with continuous inflows into institutional ETFs, this might truly change the previous pattern of four-year bull and bear cycles.

What do you think? Will the bottom be at $80,000? Can this year break through the old high of $126,000 and reach new highs?