Looking at the few messages from this morning, my core conclusion is — it still needs to go higher.

What are institutions doing? First, look at on-chain data. Fidelity moved 208.67 BTC to an anonymous address, initially seeming like a dump, but the price actually rose by 0.22%. Such operations are usually internal rebalancing, not a true bearish signal. The ETH side is even more interesting — Bitmine staked 154,000 ETH in one go, and the staking ecosystem continues to expand. Although Stake.com also transferred out 2,000 ETH, compared to the new staking volume, this selling pressure is hardly significant.

Now, looking at the macro perspective. Federal Reserve Williams recently emphasized "maintaining stable inflation requires safeguarding employment," implying that policies won't be aggressive and will remain moderate and neutral. They forecast US GDP growth between 2.5% and 2.75% in 2026, which is a favorable environment for risk assets — liquidity remains loose, and funds are active.

Combining these two signals, the trend in the crypto market is indeed shifting gears. Institutions are rebalancing rather than fleeing, and policy expectations are warming. At this point, it might be wise to consider allocating some relatively stable assets, rather than putting everything into high-risk assets, but the probability of an upward move is definitely increasing.