#2026年比特币价格展望 The Federal Reserve Policy Sparks Global Market Turmoil

Recently, the divergence between U.S. political leaders and the Federal Reserve's policies has intensified, causing sharp fluctuations in international capital markets. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% in a single day, hitting a recent monthly low, while S&P 500 futures declined by 0.7%, indicating a clear rise in risk aversion. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 4.20% threshold, raising concerns about a steepening yield curve.

Major institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Invesco have issued warnings, pointing out the risk of long-term interest rates spiraling out of control. Assets in Europe and Asia are becoming new capital flow targets. Historically, during Nixon's presidency in the 1970s, political interference with the Federal Reserve led to a decade-long stagflation period. Today, the global de-dollarization process is accelerating, with the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves dropping to a historic low of 40%.

Against this backdrop, market participants are adjusting their hedging strategies. After a 65% cumulative increase in gold prices by 2025, analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict it could continue to rise to $6,000 per ounce. Macro traders are increasing their short positions on the dollar, while non-dollar assets such as cryptocurrencies and precious metals are attracting significant capital seeking safe havens.

This round of adjustments reflects that when central bank policies face political pressure, global investors are re-evaluating the credibility of the dollar. Should your asset allocation strategy also be adjusted accordingly?