Tonight at 21:30, the US December CPI data will be officially released. This data could become the key catalyst to break the current market deadlock.

From the perspective of crypto assets, can BTC successfully hold above 92,000? Can ETH break through the 3,200 resistance zone? The answers are likely hidden within this inflation data.

There are three major uncertainties in the market right now. First, will the statistical revisions after the government shutdown cause a technical rebound in CPI? Institutions generally forecast a month-on-month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for the overall CPI, with core CPI possibly reaching 0.36% month-on-month, hitting a new high for the year. Second, can housing inflation continue to slow down, and will the pass-through effect of tariff policies become apparent? These two points directly determine the true direction of inflation. Lastly, the strength of the data will directly rewrite expectations of rate cuts—whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January largely depends on tonight’s data.

If CPI exceeds expectations, it could completely disrupt the easing expectations for 2025, putting risk assets under pressure. If it’s below expectations, it might instead ignite bullish sentiment. Every basis point fluctuation can trigger a chain reaction; US stocks, the dollar, and commodities will respond accordingly.

Tonight at 21:30, the truth about inflation and policy directions will be revealed. Global capital markets are holding their breath—are you ready?