Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the US December unadjusted CPI year-over-year and seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month will be officially released. Don't underestimate this set of data; it not only influences the inflation landscape in 2025 but also serves as a weather vane for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate policy, directly affecting global capital flows.

What is the market currently pondering? First, whether the statistical revisions after the government shutdown will cause a technical rebound in CPI. Current institutional forecasts are that the overall CPI will increase by 0.37% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI possibly reaching 0.36% month-over-month, which would be a new high for the year. Second, whether housing inflation can continue to decline and whether tariff effects are beginning to show—these two issues determine the true face of inflation trends. The third and most immediate suspense is—how strong the data will be, which will thoroughly change the Fed's rate cut expectations. The market has already assumed that rates will remain unchanged in January, but if the data exceeds expectations, the entire year's rate cut pace could be disrupted; conversely, weaker-than-expected data could trigger a rally in risk assets.

Ultimately, at this 21:30 window tonight, every basis point change could trigger chain reactions in US stocks, the dollar, and commodities. The global financial markets will once again experience a rollercoaster of data, and investors in the crypto asset market should pay close attention to this critical data.