2026-01-13 02:30:44

#密码资产动态追踪 🌍 Is a major commodities rally coming? Two signals worth paying attention to

Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and the supply bottleneck issues for strategic metals like copper and aluminum are becoming more prominent, with the momentum for price increases still building. Meanwhile, on the other end, US employment data is starting to weaken, and the calls for rate cuts are rising again—traders are already betting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026. The convergence of these two forces is injecting momentum into the commodities market.

There's also a detail that cannot be ignored: the Bloomberg Commodities Index has completed its annual rebalancing. Historically, after each adjustment, gold and silver usually see a surge of capital inflows, often helping the market regain stability. In other words, not only industrial metals but also precious metals could experience a new round of value discovery.

From the current situation, it seems that the timing is right for positioning in base metals and precious metals: geopolitical risks support commodity prices, rate cut expectations weaken the dollar, and rising metal valuations, combined with index rebalancing and capital reallocation... these factors are working together.

What do you think about this market trend? Are you more optimistic about base metals or gold and silver? Share your thoughts in the comments below 👇

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FundingMartyr

· 4h ago

Expectations of interest rate cuts + geopolitical risks, this combination indeed tends to be driven up easily, but I still think precious metals are a safer bet.

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BridgeNomad

· 4h ago

ngl geopolitical tension + fed cuts hitting different... but here's the thing—every time commodities pump on macro signals, the liquidity fragments real quick. copper supply squeeze sounds legit until it doesn't, you know? seen this play out too many times. gold reweight inflows are predictable af, which means smart money already priced it in imo. more skeptical on the consensus here tbh

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AlwaysAnon

· 4h ago

Another rate cut to join the fun. Is this really the old trick again? If copper and aluminum can't rise, it's all pointless.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 4h ago

The data on non-ferrous metals is more robust; supply-side bottlenecks are indeed a long-term logic, but the capital flow into gold and silver is more worth tracking. --- When expectations of interest rate cuts emerge, investors flock to precious metals. This routine is played every year, but the key still depends on the break of the dollar index. --- From historical backtesting, the capital reallocation cycle after index rebalancing takes about two weeks to take effect. This window period is indeed worth laying low for. --- Honestly, compared to the ROI of commodities, I am more focused on the performance of crypto assets during a rate cut cycle. This is truly a value vacuum. --- The energy for industrial metal price increases is accumulating, but once geopolitical risks ease, prices can collapse immediately. Gold, on the other hand, is a more stable long-term allocation. --- The Bloomberg rebalancing seems simple, but the underlying capital scale is roughly in the hundreds of millions, so it's important to pay attention to institutional holdings changes. --- Interestingly, when the dollar weakens, non-ferrous metals and gold usually move in the same direction, but the strength differs quite a bit. There are still structural opportunities here.

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UnluckyValidator

· 4h ago

Lower interest rates and more lower rates, when the US dollar is weak, gold should start to move, right? It feels like precious metals have greater opportunities.

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RumbleValidator

· 5h ago

As soon as the easing expectation emerges, commodities take off; I can verify this logic. But the key still depends on the node data—how long can the geopolitical premium last?

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