$ETH After going through multiple market cycles, we need to calmly consider several realistic issues facing Ethereum's future.

Many people are still hoping that Ethereum will become the main player again, but by 2026, this critical milestone, Ethereum will face a genuine ecological challenge. Not because the technology is outdated, but because some fundamental structural contradictions have not yet been resolved.

**The Double-Edged Sword of the Layer2 Ecosystem**

Ethereum’s Layer2 scaling solutions have indeed addressed throughput issues, but at what cost? These second-layer networks build independent ecosystems, keeping user traffic, DeFi activities, and transaction revenues within their own ecosystems. The mainnet’s Gas consumption has decreased, but this also means that ETH’s value capture mechanism is weakening. As Layer2 becomes more independent, the actual utility of the mainnet is decreasing.

**Technical Pressure from Parallel EVM Chains and High-Performance Public Chains**

High-performance public chains like Solana and Avax have already achieved Web2-level transaction experiences. Compared to them, Ethereum’s ZK technology upgrade path is complex and slow, with high cross-chain coordination costs. In an era where user experience is king, those who can provide smoother on-chain operations will gain more user stickiness. Ethereum’s technical accumulation has become a burden rather than an advantage.

**Changing Flows of Institutional Funds**

Regulatory and environmental advocates are continuously adjusting their strategies. Bitcoin has the consensus of “digital gold” and a narrative of anti-inflation; meanwhile, Ethereum’s story is fading. It lacks Bitcoin’s scarcity consensus and has lost the speed advantage of being the “world computer.” High-net-worth investors are re-evaluating their holdings and allocations.

**The Core Issue Remains Architecture**

Ethereum’s current dilemma lies in the fragmentation of liquidity among the mainnet, Layer2, and cross-chain solutions, which prevents value from effectively flowing back to the mainnet. If it cannot complete the transition from “network expansion” to “value aggregation” before 2026, Ethereum may truly shift from being a market focal point to an expensive infrastructure.

This does not mean Ethereum will disappear, but its market positioning and competitiveness need to be re-recognized.