The freshly released December inflation data is somewhat of a small surprise overall, but it can only be described as mildly positive. The nominal inflation annual rate is 2.7%, and the monthly rate is 0.3%. Both figures align with expectations, with no significant fluctuations, remaining at that sticky level; core inflation is at an annual rate of 2.6% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, which is actually below expectations, indicating that after excluding volatile food and energy prices, underlying inflation pressures are indeed easing.



The story behind the data is even more interesting. The real trouble with inflation still comes from energy and food; other sectors are doing much better. Both goods and services sectors show optimistic signals, but obtaining complete detailed data is a bit difficult—access to official databases is restricted, so we can only rely on publicly available data for judgment.

Regarding the impact on interest rate policies, the direct effect of this December data isn't significant; its true importance lies in providing some breathing room for Q1. The key to the next story depends on how Q1 unfolds. The market's current expectation is leaning toward optimism, but this optimism is cautious, and no one dares to say how long it will last. There are many issues facing Q1—how much tariffs will impact goods inflation, and what chain reactions will re-negotiations in the service sector trigger on prices—these are the key points to watch closely.

Tonight's inflation data is lukewarm; how the financial markets interpret this signal and how long they can maintain this judgment remains to be seen.
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