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The latest wave of trader activity reveals a clue—The Federal Reserve may start a rate cut cycle before Powell's term ends. This judgment is based on an unexpected signal from last week's data: core consumer price increases were lower than expected, dispelling many market concerns about persistent inflation.
Interestingly, the market's view on the pace of rate cuts is subtly adjusting. June remains the most favored time window, but according to the latest forecast data, the probability of a rate cut in April has risen from 38% to 42%. Although this shift is not large, it reflects a change in traders' psychology—the Federal Reserve's policy may be more flexible than the market previously anticipated.