The market fluctuations in the crypto world are never just simple price swings; fundamentally, it's large capital reallocating chips and adjusting positions. DOGE's recent performance is a perfect illustration of this logic.

Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, DOGE is currently resting on the 0.14 level—both sides are very congested. Upward resistance at 0.15 is right there; it was tested three times in recent days but couldn't break through. Downward support at 0.13 is quite solid; last week, when it dipped to this level, it was caught and held. This position seems calm, but the details hidden in the order book are worth examining.

The most telling sign is the on-chain activity. In the past 12 hours, a whale has been eating up, sweeping 139 million DOGE, equivalent to roughly $20 million in chips. Such a level of transaction isn't something retail investors can move—either institutions are accumulating at low levels, or seasoned players are secretly replenishing their positions. Interestingly, a similar situation occurred in October last year, when whales quietly accumulated 300 million DOGE, and then DOGE shot from 0.12 directly to 0.18. This rhythm now feels like a copy of that script.

But—don't rush to be bullish. The biggest issue now is the severe lack of trading volume. The trading amount on a major exchange is only $34 million, nearly 30% less than yesterday. This clearly indicates that retail investors are still on the sidelines, waiting for others to make the first move; no one wants to be the first to take the plunge.

Technical indicators further reveal this hesitation. The RSI hovers around 50, neither up nor down; the MACD golden cross is almost grinding into a straight line. This is a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with neither side having full control.