Bitcoin's correlation with gold drops to zero, historical data suggests a 56% upside potential

2026-01-13 16:30:11

【Blockchain Rhythm】Recently, there is an interesting phenomenon worth noting—the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has completely loosened. According to the latest data, their 52-week correlation has dropped to zero, the first time since mid-2022. Even more surprisingly, it could turn negative by the end of January.

What does this mean? History shows that whenever Bitcoin and gold diverge, BTC often experiences a strong rally. Specifically, in similar historical contexts, Bitcoin typically rises by an average of about 56% over the next two months, with the price range roughly between 144,000 and 150,000 USD.

From the macro perspective, the current situation is indeed a positive combination of factors. Global liquidity is rebounding (M2 growth is evident), and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing its end. Analysts from research institutions have pointed out that a new round of global monetary easing has already begun, and this force could continue to push Bitcoin upward through 2026.

Interestingly, if you compare Bitcoin’s recent trend with the bull market of 2020-2021, the chart looks almost identical. It jumps directly from long-term consolidation into the early stage of a “quasi-parabolic” rise. Based on this historical fractal continuation, BTC’s target price in this cycle could be around 150,000 USD.

BTC3.2%

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JustHodlIt

· 3h ago

56%？Sounds good, but is this data reliable? Feels like there's a new story every time --- Gold and Bitcoin decoupling... Is this really different this time, or are we just getting chopped again --- $150,000? Dream on, I don't even trust these predictions anymore --- M2 growth + QT ending, this combo does have some potential, but let's wait and see --- If the correlation drops to zero, it can rise 56%? I can't quite follow the logic --- Here we go again, if historical data is so useful, I would have already made a fortune --- Wait, is it really negatively correlated? Then I need to recheck my holdings --- Every time they say there's a positive combination, why does it still keep falling? --- This guy's analysis is okay, but I trust my intuition a bit more --- 14.4 to 150,000... Saying it so specifically makes me feel more uncertain, haha

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MEVHunterLucky

· 4h ago

56% increase? Just hear it and move on. It's too early to say these things now.

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gas_fee_therapy

· 4h ago

56%？Sounds very attractive, but it feels unreliable every time you calculate it this way. --- Gold has already run, can BTC still rise? I find this logic a bit hard to understand. --- Quantitative easing is coming again, making it seem like we're always waiting for this wave. --- Historical patterns tend to become ineffective exactly when you need them the most... --- How much is 150,000 USD in RMB? I need to recalculate my account now. --- The correlation drops to zero, then it directly predicts 56%. This logical chain is a bit short, isn't it? --- I looked at M2 growth, but I didn't see any real positive signals. --- Here we go again, every month it's "This time it will really go up." --- The liquidity rebound is on the asset side. How much will we get on our end?

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BearMarketBuilder

· 4h ago

56%？ Wake up, brother, we've heard this data before last year haha --- Gold and Bitcoin decoupling... sounds good, but is the $150,000 target a bit too optimistic? --- M2 growth, QT coming to an end... I believe half of this narrative, history repeats itself too often --- Another two months at 56%, it feels like there's always a "magic number" before each market move --- The correlation dropping to zero is indeed interesting, but whether the price will go up or down still depends on market sentiment --- If this wave really reaches 150, those who should have already jumped in would have done so long ago. It's a bit late to talk about it now --- Global monetary easing cycle starting? When was the last time this was announced?

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StakeTillRetire

· 4h ago

56%？Bro, is this data real? I've heard the story of history repeating itself too many times. --- It's either correlation zeroing out or negative values, it feels like there's a new reason to be bullish every week, getting a bit tired of it. --- $150,000? Write this down, if it doesn't rise by then, I'll come back to you. --- I understand the M2 growth and liquidity rebound, but why is it always this logic? Is this time definitely going to work? --- Bitcoin finally broke free from gold, is it really about to take off? --- Honestly, this is the first time I've heard of correlation divergence. Whether it's reliable or not depends on the subsequent trend. --- How did you calculate the $144,000 to $150,000 price range? Do you have a model? --- Is gold really going to fall? Or is a new cycle truly beginning? --- Two months, 56%. Am I a bit late to buy now?

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ser_ngmi

· 4h ago

56%? Sounds pretty uncertain, but the data is indeed interesting. We'll see if it can break 150,000. Zero correlation means it's about to take off? Feels like we say that every time. Is the liquidity rebound real, or is it just another pie-in-the-sky promise?

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RebaseVictim

· 4h ago

A 56% increase? That's a bit outrageous. How did they get this data? Is history repeating itself?

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